This morning, Bitcoin plummeted by 5000 points, falling to a low of $110,484, with market sentiment being very low. Ethereum followed closely, dragged down by Bitcoin, and after hitting a low of $4670, it began a strong rebound.
In just 3 days, the market experienced intense ups and downs. On the 23rd, comments from Powell directly triggered a violent market surge and collapse, while on the 25th, after market heat peaked, it began to retreat, leading to a large-scale short position explosion. The volatility of the market is evident; the funds' game is clear, and we undoubtedly became cannon fodder in the market.
In the past 24 hours, a total of 164,160 people were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $807 million.
BTC
Bitcoin plummeted rapidly, with a whale dumping 24,000 BTC; they still have BTC worth $1.38 billion on their account. However, reports indicate that the whale simply converted BTC into ETH, with a total value of $2 billion, of which $1.3 billion is staked.
The weekly MACD for Bitcoin has formed a death cross, indicating that a round of weekly adjustments is starting. Although the possibility of a false death cross cannot be completely ruled out, the probability of this situation is low. Even if a rebound might occur in the short term, it is more likely to be the end of the market.
This week is crucial. If Bitcoin cannot break through and stabilize above $116,000, this bull market may come to an end, and the bear market will follow.
Currently, Bitcoin has confirmed the formation of an M-top divergence and is beginning to test the bottom. Bears are increasing their selling pressure, testing the pin support area. The key support level below is $110,837; once this price is breached, it may quickly fall into a downward correction phase.
Resistance levels: $112,857, $113,655; Support levels: $110,837, $118,564.
As long as the daily close cannot reclaim the $118,000 resistance level, the overall trend is still downward, with the target support for the next market pullback remaining at $108,000.
ETH
Recently, Ethereum has clearly received support from funds, but due to Bitcoin weakening, ETH experienced a significant pullback as it approached previous highs, forming a double-top pattern with considerable room for correction.
The weekly MACD for ETH is overbought, far from the zero line, indicating potential market risks; on the daily chart, the increased volume of the doji pattern also suggests adjustment pressure. The short-term support level is at $4,600, but whether it can hold is still uncertain. Strong support is around $4,400, which coincides with the previous trading congestion area. If the price drops to that area, it may be worth attempting a rebound, as the odds could be higher.
Resistance levels: $4,733, $4,854; Support levels: $4,539, $4,433.
This afternoon, Sponge felt that ETH was about to plunge downwards and reminded fans to short. However, the recent rapid decline from high positions and increased volume indicates that risks have gradually accumulated. Therefore, it is recommended to hold based on spot positions and use phased profit-taking or short hedges to reduce potential drawdown risks.
Recently, whales have begun to exchange BTC for ETH, seeming to have a more optimistic outlook on Ethereum's future trajectory. The influx of funds may push Ethereum to break through its current resistance, with hopes of reaching $5,000, and possibly even hitting the $5,400 range.
SOL
The SOL/BTC trading pair has broken through the resistance level, indicating that SOL is also entering a strong performance phase. SOL is really resilient and has been trying to break through. It is evident that significant funds are flowing into SOL, so pay more attention to the upcoming rebound.
Jump and Multicoin are seeking to raise $1 billion to purchase SOL, financing to buy SOL, and link the SOL ecosystem. The Ethereum model is rapidly replicating to other mainstream coins. This wave is for SOL, and other mainstream coins will soon follow.
Is the bull market still on?
Bull markets often see sharp drops; history tends to repeat itself. Looking back at the bull markets of 2017 and 2021, after consecutive surges, there were single-day waterfall-like drops, while this year, the second half has yet to see a significant deep correction, and market risks continue to accumulate. After waiting for the market to bottom out again, Sponge will continue to bottom-fish.
We are still in the process of a bull market, with global liquidity remaining abundant (even A-shares have reached new highs), and the cryptocurrency market has not yet reached its peak stage. Sharp falls and corrections are actually characteristics of a healthy bull market, providing a more solid foundation for subsequent rises. (Operational advice: retain 30% cash position, waiting for bottom-fishing opportunities after a crash.)
Altcoin
WLFI dropped to a low of 0.2000, and this afternoon, Sponge publicly recommended using this as a stop-loss point to bet on a rebound, resulting in a profit of 533.61%. Even in a crash market, Sponge can still help everyone make money.
According to past experiences, when Bitcoin and Ethereum break through previous highs, a bull market for altcoins follows. In the later stages of a bull market, Bitcoin's market share usually starts to decline, and funds begin to flow into high-quality altcoins that have not yet fully rebounded. Currently, SOL, PEPE, ADA, and SUI are highly cost-effective choices, and these currencies are expected to see a rise.
With interest rate cuts in September almost a certainty, if there are 2 to 3 rate cut opportunities this year, will the market's funds and liquidity still be lacking? Recently, we have seen significant funds flowing from Bitcoin into Ethereum, and this trend of fund overflow is expected to extend to other quality coins. Therefore, the potential eruption of some altcoins is still worth looking forward to.
The cryptocurrency world certainly doesn't lack wealth-building myths; what is lacking is your ability to understand trends, choose the right coins, and have the confidence to hold them. This drop may be an excellent opportunity for us to enter the market. In the crypto space, we need to seize the trend; we are not here to earn a salary but to make money. The trend is in front of you; if you don't seize it, missing this wave may mean waiting another two years!
