When the market is in euphoria, smart people should count the bullets in their hands.
Fed Chair Powell's remarks at Jackson Hole made global investors collectively 'high', with US stocks hitting new highs, as if a rate cut in September is a done deal. But a close reading reveals that this 'Fed actor's' lines clearly hide a hint of 'hawkish' warning — the 'dove' is just a facade, and 'entanglement' is the core.
Rate cut = economy in trouble?
The market is celebrating interest rate cuts but is selectively ignoring Powell's subtext: 'If we cut rates, it's because the job market is about to collapse.' In other words, this isn't a victory horn, but a signal for firefighting. Behind the 'strange balance' in the labor market lies the worry of tightened immigration and slowed consumption, which could even 'suddenly explode.' What you think is good news might be a trailer for bad news?
The specter of inflation still lingers.
Despite the cooling CPI, Trump's tariff hammer is about to strike new car prices in 2026, and supply chain costs may surge again. Powell says to 'ignore one-off shocks', but his body language tells the truth — if inflation expectations spiral out of control, the Fed could turn hawkish at any moment. Will the market be spun around again by 'expectation management'?
Qingyao's professional perspective: Don't let FOMO emotions dictate your actions.
The current market has priced in a rate cut in September, but Powell has clearly emphasized that 'there is no preset path for policy', which means:
The expectation of liquidity easing could raise risk assets, but beware of the 'buy the expectation, sell the fact' routine.
If economic data disappoints, the Fed might transform into a 'Tai Chi master', delaying easing.
Volatility may soar, and short-term players should be cautious of being 'poked' into education.
In this 'Pigeon vs. Hawk' roshambo, the truth may lie beyond the candlestick charts. Want to understand the Fed's 'dark language'? Follow @加密青遥 as we break down central bank rhetoric and avoid expectation traps! After all, trading crypto without studying macro is like rushing into a dogfight without looking at the contract — you'll get burned sooner or later! #ETH创历史新高
