CME 'Federal Reserve Watch' latest data reveals: the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September has dropped from a previously certain outcome to 87.3%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate has surged to 12.7%! Although 87.3% is still a high probability, the market has begun to tremble—former Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Richard Clarida's 'cautious rate cut' warning and Powell's ambiguous statements at the Jackson Hole meeting all hint at one thing: the Federal Reserve may be engaging in a psychological battle of 'expectation management'!

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