Brothers, have you been feeling increasingly confused while using trading software lately? The bulls are shouting 'breakthrough 8000', while the bears are yelling 'smash through 4000', but the market is stuck at 5000 points drawing a doji. Don't be fooled by this 'hard talk game'; the real key signals are hidden in the details. Today, let's break it down using funding logic and not play with technical metaphysics.
First, let's talk about the 'straight pull-up' on August 22. Many people say 'Grayscale and BlackRock went crazy buying at high positions,' but they simply don't understand how institutions play. Remember: large institutions never act as 'dumb buyers.' The pull-up at 21:30 after the ETF opened was not 'spending money to buy coins,' but rather 'targeted liquidation arbitrage.' I looked at the funding data: BlackRock's pull-up funds on the 22nd were only 50% of the 21st's, so how is this buying? It's clearly 'ignition'—first, small funds push up to trigger A's liquidation line. When A is liquidated, it will passively buy to close, causing the price to rise and trigger B's liquidation. It's like dominoes; the institution only needs to 'gently push the first one.' Six months ago at 4000 points, it was a no-buy, now at 5000 points it's 'dumb buying'? They are being smart, making money from the shorts' liquidation, and their costs are so low you wouldn't believe it.
Now let's look at the 'abnormal volume reduction' on August 24, which is the signal we should be most wary of. During the Asian session in the morning, the daily trading volume of ETH on Binance actually dropped to 600M. Many people asked, 'Is it reluctance to sell or simply no one buying?' Let me teach you a judgment standard: volume reduction + price up = chips locking (reluctance to sell), volume reduction + price down = capital withdrawal (buying pressure exhausted). What was the trend of the Asian session that day? A weak downward oscillation; to put it bluntly, it's 'the price is too high, and no one wants to enter for the ride.' Don't think 'volume reduction is building strength'; at this previous high of 5000, volume reduction fundamentally means 'both bulls and bears are waiting for others to move first,' especially since Asian funds are collectively on the sidelines, indicating the market does not recognize the current price.
Interestingly, there was a 'bull charge' on the evening of the 24th, where suddenly someone attacked the 5000 point around 21:00, but just a touch and they were pushed back. Many said 'the battle between bulls and bears is fierce,' but let me be clear: this is just a test by scattered troops, not a move by the main force. Didn't you notice? The closer you get to the 5000 key level, the heavier the selling pressure; this is the essence of the 'Wall of Worry': the main short positions have large orders at key levels, just waiting for the bulls to throw themselves in. By 7:00 on the 25th, as the daily line was about to close, the doji was drawn; this is not 'bull-bear balance' but a signal of the bulls' failed attack. Just looking at the K-line is useless; look at the funding behind it: the attacking bulls are all small retail investors and speculators, while the main bulls haven't even shown their shadow.
But bears shouldn't rush to celebrate. Those shouting 'the situation is set' don't understand the 'rules of the game' in the crypto market. Institutions won’t play during the Asian session, nor will they compete with retail investors for short-term volatility. The real main force's entry time is after the ETF opens at 21:30 on the 25th. At that time, watch for two things: one, whether institutions are taking profits (cashing out the money made from the liquidation on the 22nd) or continuing to push up; two, whether ETF capital flow suddenly expands. The current bull-bear game is at best 'pre-match warm-up'; tonight is the real contest, so don't mistake the warm-up for the final.
To be frank: I never play 'dead long or dead short.' The market's direction is determined by funding. But now at the 5000 point position, those shouting 'see 8000' or 'drop to 2000' are either stubbornly maintaining appearances or trying to harvest retail investors. If you really had the ability to push to 8000, you would have already started throwing money in; not spending money while still boasting is just self-deception, isn't it? The bulls' situation is very clear now: they can only continue to push up. Sideways movement is just accumulating risk. Indicators like MACD divergence and RSI overbought are breaking through one by one, and sooner or later, a big bearish candle will crush market sentiment. But bears shouldn't let their guard down either; if institutions continue to play the 'liquidation trick' tonight, the market could rebound at any time.
Investing is not about being a prophet; it’s about keeping up with the pace of funding. I monitor ETF capital flow and changes in main positions every day. Tonight at 21:30, I will break down the market in real-time in the live broadcast, explaining the actions of institutions in detail. Don't wait until the market moves before regretting not keeping up with the rhythm; the crypto market relies on reaction speed, not stubbornness.
