1. Market Watch
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium paved the way for market expectations of a September rate cut, but he also emphasized that the final decision will still depend on upcoming economic data. Traders in Goldman Sachs' fixed income division believe that Powell's remarks have given the green light for a rate cut, especially in light of the Fed's concerns about downside risks to the labor market following recent revisions to employment data. Goldman Sachs pointed out that if non-farm payroll growth in August is less than 100,000, it will provide decisive support for a September rate cut, and predicts that whether the economy slows down or normalizes, the Fed's current rate cut cycle is likely to end in the first half of 2026.
Investor sentiment has shifted significantly, and the market focus has shifted from "whether to cut interest rates" to "the pace and magnitude of interest rate cuts." CME tools show that the probability of a September rate cut has reached 85%. Historical data shows that the Fed's rate cuts after pausing rate hikes are often beneficial to the stock market. Ryan Detrick, a strategist at Carson Group, pointed out that the S&P 500 index has risen in the following year in 10 of the past 11 such cases. However, future data such as PCE and CPI may still bring changes to the decision.
Bitcoin fell to around $110,000 in the early hours of today, which is suspected to be caused by a giant whale selling 24,000 BTC. Analyst Willy Woo pointed out that the slow rise in Bitcoin prices in this cycle is related to the continuous selling by early whales who established positions at extremely low costs (less than $10) around 2011. Currently, every BTC sold requires more than $110,000 of new capital to absorb, forming huge market pressure. In addition, technical analysts have different views on the future market. Crypto analyst KillaXBT believes that the structure of Bitcoin is bearish on low time frames and needs to regain the weekly opening price of $113,400 to verify further gains, otherwise it may face the risk of bottoming out again. He also pointed out that there is a 'gap' near $116,800 that may be tested. At the same time, analysts Rekt Capital and Daan Crypto Trades both emphasized that $114,000 is a key level for the weekend close. (Bitcoin weekend closing price was $113,493).
On the Ethereum front, market sentiment is relatively positive. Arkham data shows that some Bitcoin whales are exchanging BTC for ETH, showing strong demand. Analysts have given different levels of prediction for price trends. Analyst Michaël van de Poppe reminded investors to be wary of weekend market traps (usually weekend gains will be adjusted back to the starting point on Friday evening at the beginning of Monday), and predicted that if the market retraces, the $4,100 to $4,200 range will be an ideal accumulation area, and then it may hit new historical highs again. Analyst Stoic is closely watching the price reaction in the $4,590 to $4,600 range, believing it is a key point to control market movements. More optimistic analyst BitBull said that if Ethereum can close above $4,600 this week (Ethereum's weekend closing price was $4,780), it can be confirmed as a non-'bull trap' and lay the foundation for this week's target price of $5,200 to $5,500. However, some analysts are cautious. 0xENAS said that its target price of 0.04 for the ETH/BTC trading pair has been achieved, marking a shift in its trading strategy to conservative.
Overall, BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes predicts that the cryptocurrency bull market will last until 2028, driven by changes in US stablecoin policy. Analyst Pentoshi believes that although SOL is unlikely to hit new highs against ETH in this cycle, its price against the US dollar is expected to rebound to around $250. Luca Netz, CEO of NFT project Pudgy Penguins, revealed that the project's revenue is expected to reach a record $50 million this year, and hopes to achieve a public listing before 2027. In addition, the $WLFI token generation event contract has been deployed, and trading is scheduled to start at 8 pm on September 1. Users must first 'activate their accounts' to receive tokens.
2. Key data (as of 12:00 HKT on August 25)
(Data source: Coinglass, Upbit, Coingecko, SoSoValue, Tomars)
Bitcoin: $112,535 (year-to-date +20.29%), daily spot trading volume $42.572 billion
Ethereum: $4,705.87 (year-to-date +41.02%), daily spot trading volume is $41.462 billion
Fear and Greed Index: 46 (Neutral)
Average GAS: BTC: 1 sat/vB, ETH: 0.34 Gwei
Market Share: BTC 57.2%, ETH 14.5%
Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: ETH, SOL, XRP, QTUM, BTC
24-hour BTC long/short ratio: 47.29%/52.71%
Sector gains and losses: The crypto market suffered across the board, with the RWAI sector falling by 4.37% and the NFT sector falling by 3.24%
24-hour liquidation data: A total of 141,306 people were liquidated globally, with a total liquidation amount of $680 million, of which BTC liquidation was $238 million, ETH liquidation was $216 million, and DOGE liquidation was $14.44 million
BTC medium and long-term trend channel: upper channel line ($116,847.65), lower channel line ($114,533.83)
ETH medium and long-term trend channel: upper channel line ($4,525.95), lower channel line ($4,436.32)
*Note: When the price is higher than the upper and lower edges, it is a medium and long-term bullish trend, otherwise it is a bearish trend. When the price is in the range or repeatedly passes through the cost range in the short term, it is a bottoming or topping state.
3. ETF Flows (as of August 22)
Bitcoin ETF: -$23.1492 million, net outflow for 6 consecutive days
Ethereum ETF: +$341 million
4. Today's Outlook
Binance Wallet Bonding Curve version TGE will launch OVERTAKE (TAKE) on August 25
Binance Alpha will launch Multiple Network (MTP) on August 25
Bio Protocol's first Ignition Sale project Aubrai will be launched on August 25
Binance Alpha will launch Alttown (TOWN) on August 26
Venom (VENOM) will unlock approximately 59.26 million tokens at 4:00 PM on August 25, which is 2.34% of the current circulating supply, worth approximately $8.9 million;
AltLayer (ALT) will unlock approximately 240 million tokens at 6:00 PM on August 25, which is 6.01% of the current circulating supply, worth approximately $8.5 million;
Sahara AI (SAHARA) will unlock approximately 84.27 million tokens at 8:00 PM on August 26, which is 3.97% of the current circulating supply, worth approximately $7.3 million;
Huma Finance (HUMA) will unlock approximately 378 million tokens at 9:00 PM on August 26, which is 23.38% of the current circulating supply, worth approximately $10 million;
Today's top 100 market cap gainers: VeChain up 4.4%, Hyperliquid up 3.8%, Story up 3.4%, Monero up 2.1%, Algorand up 2%.
5. Hot News
Data: JUP, KMNO, HUMA and other tokens will usher in large unblocks, of which JUP unlocks about $27.1 million
Macro Outlook This Week: Don't be too crazy about rate cuts, don't panic too much about PCE
Weekly Preview | Japan and Hong Kong will stage a week of crypto summits in succession; Jupiter (JUP) will unlock tokens worth approximately $27 million
Raydium has spent $196.3 million to repurchase 71 million RAY, accounting for 26.4% of the circulating supply
Pudgy Penguins CEO: Revenue is expected to reach $50 million this year, and an IPO is planned within two years
A certain Bitcoin OG took out 6,000 BTC again to exchange positions for ETH
OKX Star: To launch a $100 million X Layer ecosystem fund
WLFI public offering participants TOP10 hold 4.63% of the total, TGE unlocks 20% worth 264 million US dollars
Stargate DAO has approved LayerZero's acquisition of Stargate (STG)
Bitmine increased its holdings of ETH by approximately $45 million and currently holds approximately $7 billion of ETH
ETHZilla plans to increase the size of the placement to $10 billion to support continued purchases of ETH
Trend Research increased its holdings of 28.21 million NEIROETH, and now holds 67% of the total
Story Foundation has launched an $82 million $IP open market repurchase program
