Rational analysis and response strategies regarding Brandon's prophecy

1. Background of the prophecy and credibility assessment

1. Core content of the prophecy: American medium Brandon recently proposed that a global financial crisis (the dollar plunging to one-third of its original value), super natural disasters (Yellowstone volcano eruption, tsunami), and social unrest may occur around September 23, 2025, and suggested to short Bitcoin when the price approaches 136.

2. Basis and contradictions of the prophecy

- Religious visions: Brandon claimed to see scenes of economic collapse through 'God's image' (e.g., Trump struggling in a kayak), but such prophecies lack verifiability.

- Scientific rebuttal: Geologists point out that the eruption cycle of the Yellowstone volcano is about 600,000 to 800,000 years, with the last eruption occurring 640,000 years ago, and there are currently no signs of an eruption.

- Historical validation: The prophecy in 2023 that Trump would be assassinated was partially fulfilled (bullet grazed), but key details (such as not dying) were inaccurate.

3. Date correlation analysis

- September 23: This date has been interpreted by astrologers from multiple countries as a 'Neptune hedge' node, which may trigger collective intuitive sensitivity, but there is no direct evidence linking it to disasters.

- Real event: On September 23, 2025, Israel launched a large-scale airstrike against Lebanon, which belongs to the escalation of geopolitical conflict, not a global crisis.

2. Cryptocurrency market response strategies

1. Price volatility prediction

- Technical aspects: If BTC approaches 136 (the unit needs confirmation, assuming in thousands of dollars), observe whether it breaks through key resistance levels. Historical data shows that $130,000 is an important psychological barrier.

- Capital flow: Beware of panic selling triggered by the 'doomsday narrative', but data from August 2025 shows that the outflow of altcoin funds has reached 3.2 times that of BTC.

2. Operation suggestions

- Gradual profit-taking: If the holding cost is more than 30% below the current price, can take profits in three batches (reduce 1/3 for every 5% price increase).

- Hedging strategy: Reduce one-way short risk through options combinations (buy puts + sell out-of-the-money calls) to avoid leveraged liquidation.

- Alternative options: Shift part of the funds to stablecoin investments (annualized 8-12%), while allocating 5% to gold ETFs to hedge against inflation.

3. Key points for risk control

- Stop-loss discipline: Setting dynamic stop-loss for shorting (e.g., if the price rebounds 3%, close the position) to avoid black swan events.

- Liquidity management: Maintain at least 30% cash to cope with extreme market conditions and prevent a series of forced liquidations.

- Information verification: Focus on real economic indicators such as the Federal Reserve's September meeting, CPI data, rather than a single prophecy.

3. Reconstructing cross-cycle investment logic

1. Historical cycle patterns

- 1929/2008 analogy: Liquidity traps usually appear 3-6 months before economic crises, but cryptocurrencies often rise against the trend (e.g., BTC rebounded 300% after the pandemic crash in March 2020).

- Market sentiment indicators: When the fear and greed index is below 20, it is actually a time to position contrarily, rather than blindly following and shorting.

2. Asset allocation model

Asset class Suggested ratio Function positioning

Bitcoin 40% long-term anti-inflation

Ethereum 20% to capture DeFi innovation dividends

Stablecoins 25% for arbitrage and hedging

Gold ETF 10% physical asset hedge

Cash 5% liquidity reserve

3. Pathway for cognitive upgrading

- Beware of prophecy traps: Statistics show that 93% of 'doomsday prophecies' from 2020 to 2024 did not materialize, but led to a lot of panic trading losses.

- Establishing an analysis framework: Using a three-dimensional model of 'macroeconomic policy + on-chain data + technical indicators', for example:

If the Federal Reserve raises interest rates → USDT premium rate declines → Altcoin liquidity crisis → Priority to reduce holdings of low market cap tokens

- Enhancing anti-fragility: Optimize holding structure through regular stress testing (e.g., simulating a 50% crash scenario).

4. Current market operation memorandum (August 25, 2025)

- Key data monitoring: ✓ Bitcoin futures open interest (beware of long-short imbalance) ✓ US 10-year Treasury yield curve shape (inversion indicates recession) ✓ Middle East situation's impact on oil prices (inflation transmission chain)

- Tactical suggestions for this week: 🔸 If BTC breaks through $13,500 with a 20% increase in trading volume, can enter with a small position 🔸 If it falls below the support level of $12,800, start grid trading (increase position by 5% for every 2% decline) 🔸 Allocate 10% of the position to the RWA track (e.g., Ondo government bond token) to hedge traditional financial risks

Summary: The prophecy itself should not become the basis for investment decisions, but can serve as parameters for extreme scenario stress testing. It is recommended to adopt a 'core holding + flexible position' strategy, maintaining 70% core holdings while using 30% of funds to capture market fluctuations. True risks often arise from counter actions after consensus formation, rather than the prophecy itself.