Bitcoin has slid from its historical high of 124,000, wobbling around 110,000. For a moment, the crypto world seemed to have hit the mute button, leaving only the popping sounds of altcoins and the suppressed gasps in community corners—"Is it over? Has it ended?"
Look, this is the "curse" of the market. When prices tremble, those old guys mumbling about the "four-year cycle" start to look distracted, their fingers subconsciously calculating, afraid of missing the signal of a "bear market". On the other hand? The warriors shouting about "stars and seas", "long-termism", when it comes to the threshold of 100,000, their hands seem to be welded in their pockets—buy? Or not buy? That’s the question. What’s the result? When a correction comes, the timid get shaken off; those on the sidelines are still waiting for a "perfect" entry ticket. Going around in circles, the "hard assets" in everyone’s hands are becoming increasingly rare.
As for me? I choose to believe in that invisible "pendulum". I’m not waiting for some cold number (like "if it drops to XX, I’ll go all in"), but rather for this season's "carnival" to truly end. Like finishing a spectacular show, the lights come on, the crowd disperses, and I need a quiet moment to properly say goodbye to this journey, then gather my thoughts and prepare for the next unknown adventure. This feeling is much more interesting than simply watching the price fluctuate.
Where is there a rainbow that doesn’t go through the storm? Every decent takeoff has to jolt a bit in the airflow. This time's turbulence may last a little longer and be a bit fiercer than expected. Look around: the indicators aren’t overheated to the point of smoking, everyone’s emotions seem more like "still in shock" rather than "completely crazy", and even my own intuition is saying—it's far from the time to wrap things up. Of course, I am quietly adjusting my course; Bitcoin is still my "flagship", but my gaze has begun to scan broader waters. After all, you can't always put all your eggs in one basket, right?
Want to guess whether Bitcoin will rise or fall tomorrow? Even a crystal ball might not be reliable. But zooming out to a scale of ten or twenty years? There’s no need to guess at all! 120,000 is the end point? What a joke! Think back to 1995, when browsers were launched, how many thought the internet was a bubble? Look at Amazon in 2005, when its stock price hovered around tens; how many could have imagined it would soar later? Those tech giants that seemed "unattainable" ten years ago, looking back, their growth was just like sand slipping through fingers. Bitcoin, this "new continent" of the digital age, could it rise tenfold to a million dollars in ten years? Who dares to say "absolutely impossible"? The disruptive nature of technology often surpasses our wildest imaginations.
Whether you are betting on a capital of 100,000 or a small goal, opportunities at the level of Bitcoin—long-term, highly certain, and disruptive growth—are enough to reshape the landscape of wealth. But the real scarcity is not the opportunity itself, but whether you are willing to spend time to understand it: it is not some ethereal code, but the first attempt in human history to anchor "absolute scarcity" in the digital world. This essence is its strongest trump card.
Why do I still believe in this "cycle"? Rather than calling it "mysticism", it’s more like a kind of "market evolution theory". With every new influx of blood, the market undergoes a brutal "stress test": the pioneers of 2013, the trendsetters of 2017, the FOMO army of 2021, and now the "regular army" brought in by ETFs this year... Only when all participants—whether veterans or newbies, institutions or retail investors—have personally experienced the complete cycle of asset "turning to ashes" and then "rising from the ashes", can a true, super-long bull market like that of the U.S. stock market possibly arrive. Now? The dominance is still with ETFs and institutions, and the short-term gene of "chasing highs and selling lows" is too strong, far from that deep-seated belief of "surviving bull and bear markets, treating volatility as nothing".
As for how to judge where the "peak" is? I also look at some "dashboards": Are the old players calmly hoarding or quietly slipping away? Is the market's enthusiasm for borrowing money to speculate on coins getting out of hand? Is there rational discussion in the community or is it a collective "high"? Are the people searching for "getting rich with Bitcoin" on Google overwhelming the servers? Are the indicators of those classic cycle models about to burst the charts?... But to be honest, all these indicators will eventually converge into a feeling—a kind of suffocating, almost unreal "fervor" that permeates the air. When that feeling becomes so strong that it makes you restless, making you feel "something is not right"... Hey, friend, that’s likely the time to fasten your seatbelt and even consider temporarily jumping off the ride. Human intuition sometimes senses danger earlier than the most complex algorithms.
So, falling back to 110,000? That's fine. It temporarily calms the noise and allows true value to surface. This is not the end, not even the midpoint, just a necessary deep breath on the long evolutionary road. I choose to believe in time, believe in scarcity, and believe in that unstoppable force of innovation that drives humanity forward. The story of Bitcoin is far from over. Has your story begun?
