The analysis of WLFI's later trend is as follows:
Short-term (a few days to a few weeks): Strongly bearish
1. Huge unlocking selling pressure: This is the most core factor currently dominating the short-term price. Early investors have very low costs (minimum $0.015), and regardless of the current price, they have a huge profit margin. Once the tokens are unlocked, the selling pressure to realize profits will be very strong. This is the 'sword of Damocles' hanging over WLFI.
2. Poor technical indicators: From your trading data chart, it can be seen that:
- Significant price drop: Current price $0.2223, a single-day drop of 22.35%, indicating that the market is selling off in large volumes.
- Shrinking trading volume: The current trading volume (Vol) is 206 million, while the 5-day average volume (MA5) is 591 million, and the 10-day average volume (MA10) is 631 million. A decrease in volume during a price drop indicates that buying power is very weak, and no one is willing to pick up the falling knife at this position, which may lead to a continued downward trend.
- OBV (On-Balance Volume) is negative: The value is -5.36 billion, and the trend is downward. This indicates that overall funds are flowing out, with sellers dominating the market.
- MACD indicator: Although the chart only shows trading volume MA, a significant price drop is usually accompanied by bearish MACD signals (e.g., DIF crossing below DEA).
3. Market sentiment shift: Under the double blow of unlocking expectations and price collapse, market sentiment will shift from FOMO to FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt), leading to more retail panic selling and forming a negative feedback loop.
Medium to long-term (after a few months): Depends on the project substance and the popularity of the Trump concept.
1. Favorable factors (potential support):
- Trump concept: If Trump wins the election in November this year, all assets related to him (including WLFI) may experience a wave of speculation.
- Project fundamentals: If its stablecoin $USD1 business can really take off, generating actual income and use cases rather than just being a speculative concept, then WLFI will gain value support.
- Movements of major holders like Sun Yuchen: If these major holders choose not to sell and even increase their holdings, and build the ecosystem in the long term, it will create price support. However, this is a highly uncertain expectation.
2. Bearish factors:
- Continuity of unlocking selling pressure: Unlocking is not completed in a day, and the selling pressure may continue for a period of time, continuously suppressing the price.
- Overvaluation: Even after the drop, its FDV (currently calculated at $22.23 billion) is still far higher than the valuation during the financing phase (1.5-5 billion), and the valuation remains very expensive.
- Competition: Cryptocurrencies related to the Trump concept already have competitors like $TRUMP, which will divert the market and funds.
Comprehensive conclusion and suggestions
1. Short-term trend: Extremely bearish. The main driving factor is the massive selling pressure from early investors unlocking their holdings, and the technical indicators are also completely in a bearish arrangement (after a volume drop, the price continues to decrease). The price is likely to continue to drop in search of a support level that can attract enough buying interest. This support level may approach or even fall below the last round of public offering price ($0.05), as only then will the selling willingness of early investors weaken.
2. Medium to long-term trend: Highly uncertain. It completely depends on the election situation of Trump and the actual implementation of the project itself. After experiencing a sufficient drop and releasing most of the unlocking risks in the short term, if Trump is leading in the polls, it may welcome a speculative opportunity for a rebound. However, this is a high-risk event-driven investment.
3. Suggestions for investors:
- Never try to catch the bottom at this moment: Catching a falling knife is very dangerous. In an obvious downward trend and with massive selling pressure, predicting the bottom is difficult.
- Closely monitor the unlocking progress and trading volume: The true bottom is usually accompanied by a panic-driven volume drop (massive turnover), followed by a gradual stabilization of volume.
- If you want to seize medium to long-term opportunities, it is advisable to wait: Wait for the price to drop sufficiently, most unlocking risks to be released, and technical patterns to show stabilization signals (such as double bottoms, head and shoulders bottoms, etc.), and then consider whether to enter with a small position based on the Trump election situation.
To ultimately answer your question: Based on the above analysis, purchasing $WLFI in the secondary market at this stage is a highly risky action, and it is very likely to face further losses. It is advisable to wait and see for a better opportunity (if there is one) or directly avoid this high-risk asset.
