1. Summary

$QTUM just had a strong breakout to the peak of $3.489 then pulled back to ~$3.14; short MA crossed above long MA, RSI stable ~54 — short-term bias leans bullish but volume is the decisive factor to avoid false moves. • Short-term catalyst: surge due to the listing/liquidity round + network upgrade; risk: strong profit-taking after the pump.

2. Analysis

Technical: price bounced from ~1.95 to 3.489, currently a slight pullback around MA7 (~3.25), MA25/MA99 still supportive — 1H/4H structure leans bullish if volume holds; RSI(6) ~54 allows for more upward momentum.

Fundamentals: recent listings/liquidity/upgrade headlines driving liquidity and on-chain activity; circulating supply ~105.7M — not a meme supply, so the risk profile is different from memecoins.

Sentiment: the market has FOMO after the pump but can also quickly take profits; if a large amount of tokens floods onto CEX or upgrade news is delayed → risk of a quick flip.

3. Strategy

Entry:

  • Scenario A (Confirmed Breakout): probe/limit when 4H close > $3.40–$3.50 with 4H volume increasing > 40% MA20 on 4H (confirming strength).

  • Scenario B (Safe Pullback): Buy probe $2.80–$3.05 if there is a wick rejection or a 1H/4H reversal candle; prioritize probe buys near the convergence zone of MA25/MA99.

Stop-loss: $2.20 (below the strong support zone $2.22 and the previous swing low — avoid too tight SL to evade false stops).

Take-profit: TP1 = $3.45–$3.50 (take part of the target near the previous peak); TP2 = $4.20–$4.60 (expanded target if volume + momentum continues). If volume is lacking, lower TP2 to ~$3.90 to be more realistic.

Exit triggers (early exit): a large amount of tokens transferring to CEX, negative news about upgrade/listing, or volume collapse plus RSI >80 → exit immediately. Use limit/probe to avoid slippage.