Event Review 🔍
In the early hours of yesterday, the ETH market experienced a remarkable violent fluctuation. As early as 02:48, the price of ETH surged towards $5000, setting a new high and successfully attracting widespread market attention. However, in just a few short minutes, market sentiment took a sharp downturn: due to changing macroeconomic expectations and high leverage trading triggering chain liquidations, ETH began to plummet from 03:10 and briefly dipped to around $4741 at 03:35. Although the price slightly rebounded to $4776.54 by 04:05, the overall volatility and market panic sentiment have not completely dissipated.
Timeline 🕒
02:48: The price of ETH surged significantly, reaching a new high and approaching the $5000 mark, laying the groundwork for subsequent fluctuations.
03:10: The market began to show selling pressure, with ETH hovering in the $4950–$4957 range, indicating signs of profit-taking.
03:21: ETH broke through the key support level of $4871, triggering market panic and exacerbating the chain liquidation phenomenon.
03:35: In just 25 minutes, the price of ETH quickly fell to $4741, with a cumulative decline of over 4%.
04:05: The price briefly warmed up to $4776.54, but the overall market remained cautious and in a correction phase.
Cause Analysis 🔎
The recent sharp fluctuations in ETH are mainly influenced by the following factors:
Macroeconomic Policy Shift
Recent expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and uncertainty signals from the Jackson Hole meeting have led investors to reevaluate future liquidity and interest rate environments. Concerns over declining future yields prompted some institutions and retail investors to quickly adjust their positions, further intensifying profit-taking in risk assets.High Leverage Trading and Chain Liquidation
High leverage trading is prevalent in the market, and price corrections triggered mass forced liquidations of long positions. This chain reaction not only expanded the price drop but also led to panic selling in a short time, resulting in a surge in trading volume and further amplifying market volatility.Main Capital Outflow
In the short term, data shows that the net outflow of main capital has reached tens of millions of dollars, and the concentrated withdrawal of funds has tightened market liquidity, exacerbating price volatility.
Technical Analysis 📊
Based on Binance USDT perpetual contract ETH/USDT 45-minute K-line data, we observe the following technical signals:
Indicator Signals
RSI has fallen below the midline of 50, indicating an increase in short-term downward pressure.
The price has declined after rebounding from the upper Bollinger band, crossing the middle band, forming a typical sell signal.
The KDJ indicator shows divergence, with significant downward strength; the OBV indicator has crossed below the moving average line, also indicating an increase in selling pressure.
Abnormal Trading Volume
Trading volume surged by 537.90%, far exceeding the recent average volume over 10 periods, indicating escalating panic selling.
The average trading volume over 10 days and 20 days rose by 141.80% and 102.13%, respectively, showing unusually active short- to medium-term trading.
K-line Patterns and Moving Average System
A 'Evening Star' and 'Belt Hold' patterns have appeared, reflecting a potential bearish reversal at the top.
Although the short-term moving averages (MA5, MA10, MA20) are in a bullish arrangement, the current price encounters resistance near MA20; a certain support level is formed near MA50 in the medium term.
In the long term, the price remains above EMA120, indicating that the ultra-long-term upward trend is unchanged, but the TD Sequential indicator is currently in a bearish Setup phase (8/9), suggesting that a price reversal signal may emerge in the short term.
Moving Average Dynamics
The price is currently below EMA24 but above EMA52, reflecting an adjustment within an upward trend; the upward slope of EMA52 (0.45%) suggests that the medium-term trend still has support.
Market Outlook 🚀
Comprehensive review of events, macro factors, and technical analysis indicates that the ETH market will remain in a state of high volatility in the short term. Future trends need to focus on the following aspects:
Key Support and Resistance
The $4871 level, as an important support level, is worth close attention. If broken, it could trigger further chain liquidations; at the same time, the price encounters resistance near MA20, indicating significant resistance pressure.Market Sentiment and Liquidity
The uncertainty of macro policies and the risks posed by high leverage trading must guard against the further deterioration of market sentiment. Investors should remain cautious during market adjustments and prioritize risk control.Long-Term Trends and Short-Term Fluctuations
Although there has been a sharp decline in the short term, ETH still maintains a long-term upward trend from a longer cycle perspective. Medium to long-term investors can focus on positioning during the pullback process, while short-term traders should closely monitor technical indicators and unusual changes in trading volume to guard against further volatility risks.
Overall, ETH is currently at a crossroads of macro game theory and technical reversal. In the face of volatile market conditions, rational operations and effective risk control measures will be key for investors to navigate market fluctuations.
