The sharp rise from a few days ago is still fresh in memory: On Monday, it surged directly from 4200, and by Wednesday, it reached 4888. During the explosive rise of 680 points, many were shouting 'aiming for 5000'. Friends of mine trading short-term entered at 4300 and took profits at 4800, securing a profit of 500 points, saying 'this week I can relax'. But just two days later, the market got stuck in the 4700-4800 range, and weekend volume shrank by half; the chatter in the group shifted from 'aiming for 5000' to 'waiting for direction' and 'small positions for trial and error'.

But don't think that consolidation means 'not moving up' — this is actually a healthy signal. After a 680-point rise, how many people want to run? It's like climbing a mountain; after an intense 200 meters, you need to catch your breath. The consolidation around 4700 is essentially 'profit-taking': some are cashing out safely above 4800, while others are quietly buying at 4700. This kind of 'hand-off' can wash away the 'unstable chips' that are nervous about making profits, leaving behind long-term capital. As long as this range stabilizes, it can actually build strength, like a compressed spring that will rebound even stronger, laying the foundation for a surge to 5000.

There was a similar market situation last November #ETH : after rising from 3800 to 4500, it consolidated in the 4300-4400 range for 3 days, and weekend volume shrank significantly. Many were saying 'it's at the end', but then on Monday it broke through 4500 with high volume and surged to 4800. The current situation resembles that time too much; it depends on whether it can replicate the 'surge after consolidation' trend.

In the next two days, these two signals will directly determine direction (whether to surge to 5000 or drop to 4500):

1. Strong consolidation signal (bullish)

If during the weekend consolidation, the trading volume continues to shrink (for example, Binance's 1-hour volume drops from 200 million to below 100 million), but the price remains steady above 4700 and does not break below 4680 — it indicates that selling pressure has weakened; it’s not that 'it can’t rise', but rather 'the main force is absorbing'.

When I was monitoring the market on Wednesday night, I noticed signs: the price dropped to 4720, and suddenly there were three orders of 5 million U coming in, pushing it straight back to 4750. The trading volume was very small, clearly showing 'nobody was willing to sell'. In this situation, post-weekend, it’s very likely to surge to 4888, even touching 5000 — after all, with a 680-point trend, the main force can't just take a little profit and leave.

2. Breakdown risk signal (bearish)

If there’s a sudden surge in volume and a drop (half-hour trading volume exceeds 300 million), and the price breaks below 4700, even crashing below 4650 — beware of 'emotional reversal'. It could be institutions offloading or short-term negative news.

There was a similar situation last September: #ETH After rising from 4200 to 4600, it consolidated, and suddenly on the weekend, it dropped to 4300 with high volume, later probing down to 4100. If it breaks below 4700 this time, it may drop to 4500 (the upper edge of the previous consolidation platform), and we must avoid risks - liquidity is poor on weekends, and it's difficult to stop losses when it drops.

Corresponding strategy, beginners should not operate recklessly:

Short-term: Light positions for speculation, not heavy positions.

Weekend fluctuations can be large and small; don’t be greedy for 'big profits'.

If it dips back to 4700-4720 and stabilizes (does not break below 4700 for 5 minutes), consider small position low buys (with a maximum investment of 500U from a capital of 10,000U), stop loss at 4680 (if it breaks, acknowledge the loss, don't wait);

If it rebounds above 4850 without volume (1-hour trading volume is 30% less than the previous hour), a small position can be tried for shorts (around 300U), targeting 4800; take profits from fluctuations and don't be greedy.

I operated like this yesterday: entered 300U long at 4710, took profits at 4780, earning 70U, steady; if I had waited for 4800, I would have missed out as it has now pulled back to 4750.

Mid-line: Follow only when the direction is clear, don't guess the top or bottom.

The safest bet is to wait for the consolidation to end:

Breakthrough 4888 with increased volume (hourly trading exceeds 300 million, and stabilizes above it), increase positions;

If it breaks below 4700 and stabilizes around 4500 (volume shrinks, no further drop), then look for opportunities.

Friends of mine who are trading mid-term have a capital of 50,000U and are not moving now, saying 'no trading on weekends, waiting to see direction on Monday' — this attitude is correct; don’t guess 'top or bottom', following the main capital is more reliable than 'betting on direction'.

Final reminder: Liquidity is poor on weekends, a large order might drop it 100 points before being pulled back; don’t be fooled by 'false breakouts' or 'false breakdowns'. The key now is not to get caught up in long or short, but to closely monitor the 4700 dividing line, hold your bullets, and wait for a clear trend signal before taking action.

If you find this useful, keep an eye on the market over the weekend; I will update you as soon as there are new signals — #ETH Whether it can surge to 5000 depends on whether this consolidation is stable over the next two days; let’s wait for direction together. #ETH创历史新高 $ETH