The Venezuelan economy, over the last decade, has been a battleground marked by hyperinflation, devaluation, and a constant struggle against speculation. In this volatile scenario, the price of the dollar, in its various forms — and especially USDT, the most widely used stablecoin — has become a thermometer of economic uncertainty. The parallel quote on platforms like Binance dominates the daily lives of millions of Venezuelans, but what if the government of Venezuela had a powerful and unconventional tool to alter this game? What if it used its supposed bitcoin reserves to manipulate the price of USDT downwards in bolívares?
The persistent rumor: the state’s mining farms
For several years, rumors, and in some cases evidence, have circulated that the Venezuelan government has invested in large-scale cryptocurrency mining. In a country with one of the lowest electricity rates in the world, bitcoin mining is a potentially profitable activity, even amidst the crisis. While the actual size of these operations is a state secret, the idea that the nation possesses a significant amount of bitcoins is not outlandish.
The question that arises is: what could the government do with a digital treasure of this magnitude? The most obvious answer is to sell them to obtain foreign currency, but the proposal we present here goes a step further: to strategically use those bitcoins to directly influence the local cryptocurrency market and, therefore, the price of the bolívar.
The manipulation mechanism: an attack on speculation
The price of USDT in bolívares on P2P (peer-to-peer) platforms like Binance is determined by supply and demand. The "speculators," often identified as small and medium traders who earn their margin from buying and selling currencies, significantly influence this quote. An increase in the demand for USDT by those looking to protect their savings from the inflationary bolívar raises the price.
This is where the state's bitcoin comes into play. If the government decided to inject a massive amount of bitcoin into the market, the strategy would be as follows:
Massive bitcoin sale: The government could sell a considerable amount of its bitcoin on the open market, or through intermediaries, in exchange for USDT. This operation in itself would not directly affect the price of the bolívar, but it would accumulate a large stock of the stablecoin.
Controlled injection of USDT: With the USDT in its possession, the government could initiate a massive and constant sale of this stablecoin in the P2P market. By flooding the market with a sudden and significant supply of USDT, the price per bolívar, following the laws of supply and demand, would tend to decrease.
The psychological effect: The sustained decline in the price of USDT would have a psychological effect on the market. Speculators, seeing that their main asset is losing value, could panic and sell their USDT, exacerbating the decline and creating a virtuous cycle (for the government) of deflation in the stablecoin's price.
