Although the broader market shows signs of exhaustion, BNB's price continues to rise. Over the past twenty-four hours, the altcoin's price has dropped by 1.5%, trading now at $877. Considering its ongoing performance, this pullback seems more like a planned temporary pause than a ‘deviation from the path’.
Over the past month, BNB has gained 15%, while the returns for the first three months stand at 30%, and the annual growth rate is 51%. With only a 2% drop from its all-time high of $899, the coin is still on the verge of a breakout that could push it into the four-digit range for the first time.
Immediate demand is being built through HODL waves
This steady rise is supported by expansion across multiple waves of HODL, a metric that tracks the percentage of circulating supply across different holding periods.
Between July 24 and August 23, three major groups increased their holdings: one- to two-year bond holdings rose from 6.55% to 7.52%, three- to six-month bond holdings rose from 1.62% to 7.30%, and one- to three-month bond holdings increased slightly from 2.29% to 2.306%.
These increases confirm that long- and medium-term investors are buying on strength rather than waiting for dips, adding more fuel to the rise in BNB's price.
Open interest in futures maintains momentum
It’s not just the spot markets that are fueling this rise. BNB futures have seen a steady increase in line with prices, peaking at three months at $1.27 billion on August 22. Current levels remain close to that mark.
BNB price and open futures
Rising open interest means more leveraged traders are entering, increasing the likelihood of sudden spikes and sudden pressures. If the momentum supports the bulls, short squeezes may accelerate the move above $899, opening up room for higher price discovery levels.
On the other hand, sudden long pressure could cause volatility and retracement, but the current alignment between spot and derivatives contracts suggests that the bias remains bullish.
The open interest rate for futures measures the total number of outstanding futures contracts that have not been settled, indicating how much capital is invested in derivatives.
BNB Price Movement: $898 is the gateway to four digits
BNB is testing critical resistance areas that may determine its next move. The coin recently pulled back from $898, which aligns with the Fibonacci extension of 0.618, typically regarded as the strongest barrier in an upward trend.
The price of BNB is currently trading just below another key resistance level at $882.
With the level of $898-$899 representing an all-time high and one of the strongest resistance areas, a decisive candle close above this level could pave the way to $922 and $952.
Once the price of BNB strongly surpasses $898 and enters a price discovery phase, the first four-digit target will be at $1,038. If the momentum in the spot and derivatives markets continues, this could just be the beginning of a longer rally, as the $1,000 level becomes more of a turning point than a target.
However, if the price of BNB drops below $812, a key correction area, this would invalidate the short-term bullish thesis, temporarily halting the rise in BNB's price.
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