1929-1937: We call this the Great Depression era.

1973-1981: We refer to this as the era of stagflation.

Now, from 2020 to 2030, we may refer to it as the Great Recession era.

1929-1937: Due to the absence of credit money models, the world entered the Great Depression. Perhaps because the depression could not be resolved for a long time, it led to the full outbreak of World War II, a piece of history that everyone should not forget.

After the dissolution of the dollar and gold from 1971 to 1973, the era of credit money began.

1973-1981: The depression did not arrive, but the era of stagflation did, and the US entered a vicious inflationary mode.

By 1982, the rampant inflation in the US had basically ended.

And now, since 2020, we have entered the depression phase of the fifth Kondratieff wave. The reason for this depression is that the era of information and communication technology dividends is over; information and communication technology has penetrated all industries and can no longer drive the economy into a medium to high-speed growth mode.

1982-1991: PC Era

1992-2008: Internet Era

2009-2019: Mobile Internet Stage

2020-2030: Intelligent Digitalization Stage

The intelligent digitalization stage, which is actually the fourth stage in the wave of information and communication technology, is characterized by two points:

1. Digital Transformation

2. Artificial Intelligence starts to emerge.

However, artificial intelligence at this stage cannot become the core driving force for economic recovery, as it is still an immature gadget, a small case, and it must continue to grow before it can lead the world into a recovery mode.

This time point is in 2030 or later.

Currently, it seems that OPENAI's GPT-5 is such a model; it was initially thought to be a game changer, but it is still a small gadget. So we completely give up on fantasies, and the world will begin to enter another low point!

The AI wave centered around OPENAI's GPT is beginning to enter a decline phase.

The era of strong dollar in the US is basically coming to an end, and we will gradually enter the era of weak dollar. The beginning of the weak dollar era represents a gradual decline of dollar assets.

In other words, the tide of the dollar has begun once again.

In September, the Federal Reserve began to cut interest rates, which will cause many assets to surge crazily, and then before the end of the year, plunge from summer straight into winter, leading to a sudden collapse of asset prices!

Of course, some assets have started to rise crazily.

In Q4 2025, we will enter another roller coaster phase. The last one started with strong dollar interest rate hikes in 2023, causing US stocks and dollar assets to enter a collapse mode.

If the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates crazily, in Q4 2025 we will see various risky assets enter into a mad surge and then rapidly fall back, like a roller coaster.

Thank you all for reading.