Data: How Will the Global Carbon Trading Market Gap Support a Valuation of $TREE ?

The supply-demand gap in the global carbon trading market is becoming the core driving force behind the valuation growth of Treehouse (TREE). According to international agency data, by 2025, the carbon emissions covered by the global carbon market will only account for 28% of the actual total emissions, while the tightening quota policies in major markets like the EU and China continue to expand this gap, creating structural opportunities for TREE's on-chain carbon verification and financialization solutions. @Treehouse Official #Treehouse

1. Quota Tightening and Surge in Demand

The annual reduction rate of quotas in the EU carbon market (EU ETS) has increased to 2.2%, and the goal of reducing emissions by 90% by 2040 will further decrease quota supply. After high-energy-consuming industries such as cement and steel were included in China's national carbon market, the proportion of covered emissions reached 60%, but the allocation of quotas is becoming stricter. It is expected that the carbon price will exceed 71 yuan/ton before 2030. This imbalance of supply and demand is driving companies' demand for alternative carbon credits (such as TREE's tETH), and the correlation between its valuation and carbon price has significantly increased.

2. Cross-Border Potential of the Voluntary Market

The annual trading volume gap in the global voluntary carbon market reaches 150 million tons. Carbon credits generated by Chinese enterprises through TREE staking (such as GoNuts) can be traded across borders to fill the compliance demand under the EU CBAM mechanism. For example, European importers need to pay a carbon tariff for high-carbon products, and TREE's zero-knowledge proof technology can provide a low-cost compliance pathway, attracting institutional capital inflow.

3. Premium Effect of Financialization Tools

TREE transforms carbon assets into interest-bearing instruments through the DOR interest rate mechanism, achieving an annualized return of 50%-75%, far higher than the static holding returns of traditional carbon credits. The deflationary model that destroys 20% of the protocol's revenue through smart contracts further enhances its scarcity. Bloomberg predicts that the EU carbon price may reach 149 euros/ton by 2030, and TREE's on-chain carbon assets will capture premium space.

Risk Warning: The lack of unified carbon accounting standards may hinder market integration, but TREE's technical adaptability and cross-chain layout (such as the Polkadot ecosystem) are expected to hedge this risk and become a key solution to the carbon market gap.