🔹 Current Market (1H & 4H)

1H timeframe (short-term market structure):

$ETH is currently consolidating in the $4,700–4,800 corridor, showing one of the tightest compressions of the past weeks. The presence of multiple doji candles, long wicks, and lower volatility indicates the market is storing energy for a decisive move. Traders often call this type of structure a “spring” because once released, the move can be both sharp and extended.

  • RSI (1H): Holding around 50–55, reflecting neutrality. However, the critical detail is that RSI lows are rising gradually, even while price is flat. This creates a hidden bullish divergence – often a precursor to breakouts. If RSI breaks and sustains above 60–65, it will confirm momentum shift in favor of bulls. A drop under 45 would instead flip control to bears.

  • MACD (1H): The indicator is showing extreme compression, with both lines intertwined and histogram hugging zero. This is exactly the kind of setup that usually leads to explosive volatility. The first decisive expansion – whether green or red – will likely dictate short-term direction.

  • Volume (1H): A very telling pattern: dips into $4,700–4,720 are consistently bought with higher volume than the volume seen on upward attempts into $4,780–4,800. This suggests smart money accumulation at support, while sellers are only lightly defending resistance.

4H timeframe (mid-term structure):

On the 4H chart, $ETH trades inside a broader $4,650–4,820 channel. This corridor has defined the market over the past few days.

  • Support zone ($4,650–4,700): Repeatedly tested but defended strongly. The long lower shadows here show that every dip is met with buy-side absorption. This is the “line in the sand” for bulls.

  • Resistance zone ($4,820–4,850): Sellers remain aggressive here. This level is the key breakout trigger – if cleared on strong volume, a sharp rally is very likely.

  • RSI (4H): Hovering around 52, slightly bullish bias, but importantly creating a sequence of higher lows – a bullish sign in consolidations.

  • MACD (4H): Still flat, confirming compression. Historically, when ETH stays in this state for several sessions, the breakout move has averaged 8–15%.

  • Volume (4H): Gradually tapering off, which is typical before a breakout. Traders are simply waiting for confirmation before committing big capital.

📌 Implication: $ETH is like a coiled spring. Both sides know that the breakout from this compression will likely set the tone for the next multi-hundred-dollar move.

🔹 Fibonacci Retracement & Extensions (Swing $4,450 → $4,820)

  • 38.2% retracement (~$4,645): The first defensive level. So far, bulls have managed to hold this level each time it was tested.

  • 50% retracement (~$4,635): Neutral pivot, acting as the balance line of the current swing. Losing it would weaken bullish momentum significantly.

  • 61.8% retracement (~$4,550 – Golden Pocket): This is the critical structural support. As long as ETH stays above it, the medium-term bullish bias remains valid.

  • 1.618 extension (~$5,500): The major bullish target, representing the natural expansion level after the breakout.

📊 Volume around Fibonacci zones: Trading activity shows that buyers are most aggressive between the 50% and 61.8% retracement, which suggests that institutions may be accumulating positions at these levels. This reinforces the idea of a bullish setup building under the surface.

🔹 Yesterday’s Recap (August 23)

Ethereum briefly surged past $4,800 on Powell’s dovish comments at Jackson Hole, which reinforced risk appetite across financial markets. The rally, however, stalled near resistance and was followed by mild profit-taking. Importantly:

  • The dip was shallow, showing no panic selling.

  • The higher low structure was preserved.

  • Market reaction indicated controlled profit-taking rather than trend reversal.

This recap confirms the bullish thesis that Ethereum is still in an accumulation phase, not in distribution.

🔹 Forecast – Possible Scenarios

Bullish Scenario (breakout continuation):

If ETH continues to defend the $4,700 support, bulls will target a breakout above $4,820–4,850.

  • Phase 1: A confirmed H1/H4 close above $4,820 with strong volume will trigger momentum entries.

  • Phase 2: Price could then accelerate to $5,100–$5,300, the next liquidity cluster.

  • Phase 3: Final bullish target sits near $5,500, which aligns with the 1.618 Fibonacci extension.

👉 Psychology: Bulls are accumulating on dips and waiting for the breakout trigger. Repeated failures of bears to push below $4,700 embolden bulls. A breakout would likely be accompanied by short squeezes and strong momentum flows.

Bearish Scenario (breakdown risk):

If ETH loses the $4,700 level, sellers may take control.

  • Phase 1: Breakdown under $4,700 would likely push price toward $4,550 (Golden Pocket).

  • Phase 2: If $4,550 fails, momentum would accelerate, targeting $4,300–$4,200.

  • Phase 3: In extreme cases, panic-driven selling could deepen the correction further.

👉 Psychology: Bears are defending resistance at $4,820 and betting on exhaustion. A decisive breakdown could trigger long liquidations, reinforcing bearish momentum.

🔹 Trade Setups & Recommendations

Long Setup (bullish strategy):

  • Entry: $4,700–4,720, on confirmed rebound with clear volume spike.

  • Stop Loss: $4,650, slightly below local support.

  • Take Profits:

    • TP1: $4,820 (partial take + stop-loss adjustment).

    • TP2: $5,100 (momentum target).

    • TP3: $5,500 (Fibonacci extension, main objective).

👉 Recommendation:

This setup suits traders willing to ride the trend breakout. However, discipline is key: do not enter prematurely. Wait for volume confirmation and monitor RSI >60 and MACD bullish crossover. Scaling out gradually at each TP protects against reversals. Historically, ETH breakouts from similar compressions often produce sharp rallies, but also violent fakeouts. Therefore, risk management must remain the top priority.

Short Setup (bearish strategy):

  • Entry: Trigger only below $4,700 with an H1/H4 close.

  • Stop Loss: $4,750.

  • Take Profits:

    • TP1: $4,550

    • TP2: $4,300

    • TP3: $4,200

👉 Recommendation:

This setup is riskier, as underlying market structure is still bullish. Shorts are valid only if breakdown occurs with strong downside volume and RSI <45. Without that, breakdowns risk being fakeouts. Conservative traders may prefer to wait for a retest of $4,700 as resistance before shorting.

🔹 Summary & Sentiment

Ethereum stands at a decisive inflection point. Bulls and bears are engaged in a battle within the $4,700–4,820 corridor. The outcome of this compression will likely dictate the next $500+ swing move.

  • Bullish camp: Confident due to hidden bullish divergence on RSI, strong defense of $4,700, dovish Fed narrative, and institutional accumulation. They expect a breakout to $5,100–5,500.

  • Bearish camp: Emphasize repeated failures at $4,820 as a sign of exhaustion. They see $4,550 as the magnet level and argue that if broken, ETH could correct deeper toward $4,300–4,200.

  • Neutral observers: Note the declining volume and recommend waiting for confirmation. For many seasoned traders, capital preservation is more important than chasing moves.

📊 Psychological tension: Both sides know the stakes. Bulls are trying to trap bears with higher lows, while bears are betting on distribution at the top. The breakout will likely result in a wave of liquidations – longs if $4,700 breaks, shorts if $4,820 breaks. This makes Ethereum one of the most attractive but also most dangerous assets to trade right now.
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💬 Comment below: Do you expect ETH to break to $5,500 first, or are we heading toward $4,550–4,300?

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