🔹 Current Market (1H & 4H)
1H timeframe (short-term dynamics):
On the hourly chart, $XRP remains trapped in a narrow band between $3.00–3.08. This price action has produced a series of small-bodied candles with long shadows, the hallmark of a compression market where energy is building up before a decisive move.
RSI: Currently fluctuating in the 48–52 corridor, neutral but leaning toward bullish accumulation. Importantly, RSI lows are climbing higher while price remains flat – a hidden bullish divergence. If RSI climbs above 55–60, momentum could accelerate sharply. A drop under 45 would instead suggest bearish control.
MACD: Both MACD lines are overlapping, histogram flat near zero. This is often a calm before the storm. A bullish crossover with green histogram expansion would act as a strong early buy signal, while a bearish crossover below zero would confirm downside pressure.
Volume: Clear asymmetry is visible. Every dip to $3.00–3.02 attracts stronger volume and absorption, while rallies to $3.08 lack conviction. This suggests accumulation is happening quietly, but traders are unwilling to chase price higher until confirmation arrives.
Candle psychology: Frequent wicks in both directions point to liquidity hunts and stop-loss sweeps. This is typical during sideways coiling phases, when both bulls and bears are trying to trap the other side before the breakout.
4H timeframe (mid-term structure):
The 4H chart defines a broader consolidation corridor between $2.97–3.12.
Support ($2.97–3.00): Heavily defended with long lower wicks, showing strong buy-side absorption. Each test strengthens this zone as the foundation of bullish structure.
Resistance ($3.10–3.12): Sellers remain aggressive here, rejecting multiple breakout attempts. This has become the key breakout trigger zone for bullish continuation.
Momentum: RSI is neutral near 50, but with gently rising lows. MACD has been flat for several sessions, compressing energy. Historically, such multi-day compressions in $XRP have led to 8–12% breakout moves.
Volume: Overall volume is tapering off, confirming market participants are waiting for a catalyst. When volume spikes on a breakout candle, it will likely decide the dominant direction for the next swing.
📌 Implication: $XRP is coiling tightly. Bulls are quietly absorbing dips, but unless $3.10–3.12 breaks with conviction, bears maintain equal control. This is a high-tension equilibrium where patience is key.
🔹 Fibonacci Retracement & Extensions (Swing: $2.80 → $3.10)
38.2% retracement – $2.97: First defensive level, tested multiple times and holding. Losing it would show weakness.
50% retracement – $2.95: Equilibrium point of the swing. Breaking this down would shift sentiment bearish.
61.8% retracement – $2.90 (Golden Pocket): Critical structural support. As long as it holds, bulls remain in control.
1.618 extension – $3.50: Primary bullish upside target after a breakout.
Volume at Fibo levels: Buy volume has been consistently stronger at retracement levels ($2.97–2.90) than sell volume at resistance. This reinforces the theory of institutional accumulation beneath current price.
🔹 Yesterday’s Recap (August 23)
XRP once again attempted a breakout above $3.10, but the move failed, leaving a long upper wick. Price retraced to $3.00, but buyers immediately defended the level, avoiding panic selling. Importantly, the higher low structure was preserved, signaling that bulls are still building pressure.
This paints a picture of a market in tight compression: sellers remain active at the ceiling, but buyers are equally strong at the floor.
🔹 Forecast – Possible Scenarios
Bullish Scenario (Continuation of Uptrend):
If XRP continues to hold above $2.97–3.00, the bullish structure remains intact.
Step 1 – Break $3.10–3.12: A strong H1/H4 close above this resistance, confirmed by rising volume, would be the first bullish trigger.
Step 2 – Rally to $3.30: Clearing resistance would likely invite momentum traders and trigger stop-losses on shorts, fueling a quick move to $3.30.
Step 3 – Extension to $3.50: The 1.618 Fibonacci extension serves as the ultimate bullish objective. This would likely be driven by short squeezes and FOMO entries.
👉 Psychology: Bulls have been accumulating dips patiently. Each failed attempt by bears to break $2.97 strengthens their confidence. Once resistance breaks, shorts may capitulate rapidly.
Bearish Scenario (Breakdown Risk):
If XRP closes below $2.97 with heavy sell volume, bearish momentum will dominate.
Step 1 – Break $2.95: This equilibrium level would confirm structural weakness.
Step 2 – Test $2.90 (Golden Pocket): This is the critical support; losing it would flip the trend bearish.
Step 3 – Drop to $2.80–2.70: If panic selling accelerates, XRP could revisit these levels quickly.
👉 Psychology: Bears are emboldened by repeated rejections at $3.10. A decisive loss of $2.97 would trigger long liquidations, fueling a cascade lower.
🔹 Trade Setups & Recommendations
Long Setup:
Entry: $2.97–3.00 (confirmed rebound with volume).
Stop Loss: $2.90.
TP1: $3.10.
TP2: $3.30.
TP3: $3.50.
👉 Recommendation: Enter longs only on RSI >55 and MACD bullish crossover. Avoid chop without confirmation.
Short Setup:
Entry: Below $2.97 (with H1 close).
Stop Loss: $3.05.
TP1: $2.90.
TP2: $2.80.
TP3: $2.70.
👉 Recommendation: Shorts valid only if breakdown volume is strong. Otherwise, risk of quick reversal remains high.
🔹 Summary & Sentiment
XRP is locked in a critical balance between $2.97 support and $3.10 resistance. The compression is reaching its limit – whichever side wins, the move will likely be decisive.
Bulls: Accumulate and prepare for breakout toward $3.50.
Bears: Rely on ceiling rejections, aiming for breakdown to $2.90–2.70.
Neutral traders: Wait for confirmation – in markets like this, patience pays.
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