The probability of the U.S. Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September is assessed as very high, at 75%.

According to data from CME's 'Federal Reserve Watch', the likelihood of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged is only 25%, indicating an increasing expectation of interest rate cuts in the coming month.

MAIN CONTENT

  • The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 75%.

  • The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is only 25%, down from before.

  • Data is updated from the CME Fed Watch tool on August 24.

How much can the Fed cut interest rates in September?

The probability of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is estimated at 75%, a high rate reflecting market expectations.

This is based on the 'Federal Reserve Watch' data provided by CME, a reputable tool that tracks the Fed's monetary policy fluctuations. Compared to the 84.7% from the previous day, this probability has slightly decreased but remains high. The drop in yields aims to support the economy and stabilize finances in the current context.

What is the current rate of keeping interest rates unchanged?

The likelihood of the Fed keeping the current interest rate in September is only 25%, down from a relatively high rate previously.

This figure shows that the market currently leans towards the Fed not maintaining a tight monetary policy and is more likely to cut interest rates. This decision could help stimulate economic growth when the global financial situation is volatile and reflects the views of experts and investors on the need for interest rate adjustments.

How reliable is the data from the 'Federal Reserve Watch' tool?

CME's 'Federal Reserve Watch' is a public tool widely used to track market expectations regarding the Fed's monetary policy, thus it has high reliability in analyzing interest rate trends.

Regularly updated information helps investors and financial experts accurately assess the likelihood of interest rate changes in the near future, supporting investment decisions and more reasonable economic forecasts.

How does the 'Federal Reserve Watch' tool help investors?

This tool provides very specific probability data based on futures market transactions related to interest rates, helping investors grasp market sentiment and adjust strategies.

As a result, investors have a solid basis for predicting changes in the Fed's monetary policy, minimizing risks and seizing opportunities when interest rate fluctuations directly impact the global financial market.

What factors could influence the Fed's decision to raise or lower interest rates?

The Fed often considers factors such as economic growth data, inflation indices, unemployment rates, and financial market fluctuations before adjusting interest rates.

Changes in these factors lead to the Fed potentially altering its policy to achieve long-term economic stability and control inflation. Therefore, the information reflected in the 'Federal Reserve Watch' mirrors expectations based on analyses of current macroeconomic factors.

Frequently Asked Questions

1. Why does the market expect the Fed to cut interest rates in September?

Economic developments and declining inflation pressures are the main factors causing the market to predict that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points.

2. What data is the 'Federal Reserve Watch' tool based on?

This tool analyzes interest rate futures contracts on the CME, reflecting investors' expectations regarding the Fed's monetary policy.

3. How does the Fed's interest rate cut affect the economy?

Cutting interest rates helps stimulate borrowing and investment, boosting economic growth and stabilizing financial markets.

4. What is the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in September?

Currently, the rate of keeping interest rates unchanged is forecasted at 25%, down from the previous forecast.

5. What data does the Fed typically rely on to decide on interest rates?

The Fed considers inflation indices, GDP growth, unemployment rates, and financial market conditions to make decisions.

Source: https://tintucbitcoin.com/kha-nang-fed-giam-lai-suat-thang-9/

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