Yesterday, as ETH surged, the cheers of "the bull market is back" in the community had yet to dissipate, and today the market quickly cooled down—it's not that the main forces are unwilling to push, but rather the Federal Reserve, this "key variable," has once again released a heavy signal, pouring cold water on the heated market.

Nick Timiraos, known as the "new Fed spokesperson," has his articles regarded as the "official spoilers" of the Federal Reserve, rather than ordinary analysis. In his latest article today, hidden risks lurk between the lines, leaving veteran players feeling a chill: investors who blindly chased prices yesterday are likely to face the risk of being trapped.

1. As soon as the word "rate cut" fell, a warning followed.

Yesterday, Powell hinted that "a rate cut might happen in September," and the crypto market immediately fell into a frenzy. But just one day later, Timiraos published an article that "tore down the stage," clearly pointing out: Powell's statement seems to release a dovish signal, but in fact, it is a warning to the market—"don't fantasize about continuous rate cuts."

The core translation of this statement is: there may be a "sweet reward" of a rate cut in September, but to expect a continuous rate-cutting cycle and daily "sugar"? Absolutely impossible.

This reminds one of the market situation in 2021: the Federal Reserve first released a signal of "no change in easing," attracting retail investors to enter en masse, and then suddenly announced a reduction in its balance sheet, causing Bitcoin to plummet from $60,000 to $30,000. The Federal Reserve's "first raise then suppress" strategy has precedents, and its statements often require reverse examination, especially during times of high market sentiment.

2. This year's "rate cut signals" are far less solid than last year's.

The article compares Powell's speeches over the past two years, revealing stark differences.

• At last year's Jackson Hole meeting, he clearly stated, "The timing for policy adjustment has arrived, and the direction is clear"—the market instantly understood "liquidity is about to be released," and Bitcoin quickly rose from $19,000 to $69,000;

• This year, he only vaguely mentioned that "risk balance may be shifting, and policy adjustments may be needed"—the wording is soft as cotton, essentially saying, "we haven't decided yet, let's see how it goes step by step."

It's like a boss discussing a salary increase: last year it was "how much has been decided," this year it's "whether it will increase is still uncertain." If even the Federal Reserve itself is ambiguous, how can the market dare to blindly chase higher prices?

3. Internal divisions are intensifying, and rate cuts may become a "one-time benefit."

A more critical hidden danger lies in the internal divisions of the Federal Reserve: the article directly names three core officials opposed to rate cuts, including Cleveland Fed President Harker and St. Louis Fed President Bullard.

If these two continue to oppose, even if a rate cut occurs in September, it is likely to be a "one-time risk hedge," rather than the "rate-cutting cycle" the market expects. It's like thinking the boss will raise salaries every month, only to find that a holiday bonus was given, and once spent, there are no follow-ups.

Next Friday marks a key point—the core PCE data for July, which the Federal Reserve values most, will be released soon, currently expected to rise to 2.9%, a new high in half a year. If the data truly exceeds expectations, let alone a rate cut, it would be fortunate if rates are not increased.

I suffered a similar loss in 2018: at that time, the Federal Reserve hinted at "possibly pausing rate hikes," and I heavily invested in ETH. As a result, after inflation data exceeded expectations, the Federal Reserve directly stated, "continue raising rates," causing ETH to drop from $800 to $100, resulting in heavy losses that almost led me to delete the trading software.

A few practical suggestions for crypto players.

The current market is like walking a tightrope; any action from the Federal Reserve can cause violent fluctuations in the crypto market.

• Friends who chased prices yesterday must set stop-losses and should not expect the Federal Reserve to "rescue them."$BTC $ETH #ETH创历史新高 #以太坊生态山寨币普涨 #美国初请失业金人数