Written by: White55, Mars Finance
Data shows that since 2016, whenever Ethereum's price rises in August, the price tends to fall in September.
Since early August, the price of Ethereum has risen 25%, but historical data suggests that this cryptocurrency may lose momentum in September.
Cryptocurrency trader CryptoGoos stated in a post on X that in years following a halving, September's seasonality for ETH is typically negative. Will this time be different?
As of the publication of this article, Ethereum is trading at $4,785, up about $978 from the opening price of $3,807 on August 1. After Fed Chairman Jerome Powell made dovish remarks at the Jackson Hole symposium, ETH broke through a new high of $4,887 last Friday.
History shows a cautious approach to Ethereum in September.
Powell hinted at a possible rate cut next month, and many cryptocurrency market participants see this as a potential bullish catalyst.
However, history suggests that caution should be exercised regarding Ethereum!
Since 2016, the average decline of Ethereum in September has been 6.42%. Source: CoinGlass
According to CoinGlass data, Ethereum has only risen three times in August since 2016, and each time it fell in September afterward.
In 2017, Ethereum surged 92.86% in August, then fell 21.65% the following month.
This pattern repeated in 2020: up 25.32% in August, down 17.08% in September.
In 2021, Ethereum rose 35.62% in August and fell 12.55% in September.
In the last three months of 2016 and 2020, the price of Ethereum rose.
Interestingly, despite losses in September 2016 and 2020, Ethereum saw gains in the following three months in both years.
However, this September may differ from previous years, as spot Ethereum ETFs and Ethereum funds companies have emerged, which were not active during the rebound in August.
On August 11, as cryptocurrency prices soared above $4,300, the total value of Ethereum held by companies with crypto treasuries exceeded $13 billion.
Source: Satoshi Stacker
On Saturday, blockchain intelligence company Arkham reported that BitMine Chairman Tom Lee bought an additional $45 million worth of Ethereum, bringing BitMine's total assets to $7 billion.
August is an important month for spot Ethereum ETFs.
In just August, the net inflow for spot Ethereum ETFs was approximately $2.79 billion, while the net outflow for spot Bitcoin ETFs was around $1.2 billion during the same period.
This clearly illustrates the 'significant shift' in fund inflows between spot Ethereum ETFs and spot Bitcoin ETFs.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin's dominance, which measures the overall market share of Bitcoin, has decreased by 5.88% over the past 30 days, currently standing at 58.19%. Many market participants typically attribute this to capital shifting to a broader cryptocurrency market outside of BTC.
