《Legendary Trader Pigeon Eugene's Strategic Shift: From Offense to Defense, Capital Preservation at the End of the Cycle》
I believe we are currently in the final phase of this extended cycle that began in January 2023—I expect this stage to last a few months at most. All marginal buyers globally have, to some extent, capitulated and bought cryptocurrencies, with both BTC and ETH reaching all-time highs.
The long-term target price of 0.04 for ETH/BTC that I set has also been achieved, which indicates to me that the trading logic for ETH has essentially concluded.
This means I will no longer take an offensive strategy—no more large-scale momentum martingale trading, shifting the focus from capital accumulation to capital preservation. I may very well miss out on any subsequent crazy market movements, but that’s okay, as they do not align with my trading system.
This does not mean I have completely liquidated to go short (on the contrary, I still hold long positions), but my net exposure has been significantly reduced. I will use DAT's mNAV as an indicator for when to actively re-enter the market, expecting that by the time this cycle fully ends, most DAT will trade below 1 mNAV.
We have reaped significant rewards in this round of market activity, and now it’s time to step away from the battlefield and return to life~
