Bull markets die suddenly in revelry, and bear markets resurrect in despair—history never repeats scripts but always carries the same rhyme. When someone like Eugene, the 'cycle old wizard', quietly swaps chips for a safe deposit box key, the market should ask: how many rounds can your 'FOMO painkillers' still last?
Dealer-retail game—upgrading from 'cat-and-mouse' to 'Russian roulette'.
Eugene's 'capital preservation' strategy essentially installs a pressure relief valve in the market: whales no longer use Martingale leverage to sustain the market but instead use the mNAV indicator as a 'bulletproof vest', indicating that the liquidity siphoning effect is about to start—dealers' scythes will shift from 'cutting leeks' to 'root harvesting'. If retail investors remain addicted to the illusion of a 'dead cat bounce', they are likely to be slapped in the face by on-chain data: Glassnode shows that long-term holders' chips are accelerating towards 'diamond hands', while net positions on exchanges have exposed the anxious selling pressure of short-term speculators.
Strategy: Learn to play 'dynamic position ballet' like the dealer—use USDC as your tango partner, take three steps forward and two steps back with the main position, keeping 20% cash on hand for manual resuscitation of plummeting ETH/BTC.
Long-short strangulation—either a 'short squeeze fireworks show' or a 'death spiral script'.
The current market feels like it's been injected with schizophrenia: on one side is the 'liquidity opium' under interest rate cut expectations, while on the other is the 'guillotine' of economic recession. This split has turned both bulls and bears into 'casino dealers'—bears tremble at ETF capital outflows while bulls bet that the Fed's money printing machine will ultimately crush everything. Smart money has already used implied volatility from options as a 'lightning rod', while retail investors are still gambling on the 'last bullish candle' with leverage.
Strategy: Treat stop-loss orders as 'wills' and notarize them in advance, remembering Eugene's advice—'The profits at the end of the cycle are all used to pay the ICU deposit.'
Emotion cycle—from 'greed bungee jumping' to 'fear diving'.
The fear and greed index now swings like a pendulum on steroids, but on-chain data reveals a secret: despite a $1.78 billion increase in stablecoin issuance, buying power is weak, indicating that off-market funds are watching with 'cash capability' instead of jumping in. This 'false prosperity' is the most dangerous—when whale orders require two touches to activate the market, it means the market has entered 'PvP mode': the winner is not the one who predicts best, but the one whose emotions resemble AI the most.
Strategy: Uninstall trading apps and switch to Nansen to monitor the 'position ECG' of Smart Money; they increase positions while you bleed, they twitch while you withdraw.
Remember, bull markets die from consensus, and bear markets are born from luck. When someone like Eugene, the 'human cycle indicator', starts talking about 'returning to reality', the smart move is not to catch the bottom but to check if your 'cognitive bulletproof vest' has been pierced by FOMO. After all, in the crypto market—the ones who survive the longest are not the bravest hunters, but the foxes that play dead the best.
Pay attention to @加密青遥 , when the next bull market arrives, you will come back to thank this article. #ETH创历史新高
