When the market is reveling, data is the true mirror—don't let expectations outpace reality. No matter how dovish the Fed sounds, it must first pass the PCE test.

Powell's speech at Jackson Hole this week effectively gave the market a "fixed-rate pill"—clearly hinting at a possible 25 basis point rate cut in September. Wall Street was immediately thrilled, with both stocks and bonds rallying, as if a rate cut was a done deal. The problem is, the Fed's script is never dictated by the market, but by the data.

Next week's key event will be Friday's "July core PCE data." If inflation doesn't cool as expected, Powell won't dare to pull the trigger on a rate cut, no matter how dovish he sounds. Furthermore, a host of Fed official speeches, revised GDP figures, and consumer confidence data will all influence market sentiment.

Qingyao's view: Don't get too enthusiastic about rate cuts.

For example, last year, the market also bet wildly on rate cuts, but inflation rebounded, and the Fed's hawkish stance was slapped in the face, sending Bitcoin plummeting 20% ​​in a single week. The current situation is very similar—market sentiment is buoyant, but if data falls short of expectations (e.g., a PCE rebound), the risk of a pullback is significant.

This is especially true in the cryptocurrency market, where rallies driven by liquidity expectations are often fragile. If expectations of a rate cut are disproven, funds could rapidly flee risky assets (including Bitcoin and altcoins). In the short term, the market is betting on a September rate cut, but in the long term, inflation stickiness is the true "ultimate boss."

In short, next week will either see a continuation of the "expectation fulfillment" frenzy or a dramatic reversal of "data-defying" performance. Which side are you betting on? Tell me in the comments—if PCE persists in exceeding expectations, do you think BTC will fall below $110,000, or will it be able to hold its own? Follow Qingyao for real-time analysis of the data storm next week. #ETH创历史新高