Guide for new investors in the crypto circle: Don’t learn complex indicators! I survived the great bull and bear markets and made 34 million using 12 simple moving average sayings.
First, you float high in the bull market, but fall into the mud in the bear market.
The 2017 bull market was like a crazy party. Bitcoin surged from 1,000 dollars to 20,000 dollars, and my 30,000 turned into 1.2 million — every day I opened my account, it was rising; I’d gain 50,000 before bed and another 80,000 in the morning. At that time, I was floating high, thinking I was 'chosen by the crypto gods,' and even invested my parents' retirement savings of 150,000, additionally leveraging 5 times to buy Ethereum.
Until the bear market arrived in 2018, I still held onto the fantasy that 'pullbacks are buying opportunities.' From January to December, Bitcoin fell from 20,000 to 3,200 dollars, and my account dropped from 1.35 million to just 80,000 — on the day of the leverage liquidation, I stared at the 'account zeroed' prompt, smoked an entire pack of cigarettes, and the cold wind seeping through the window felt like a knife cutting my face. My wife called crying, 'My mom is asking when that money will be paid back; how am I supposed to respond?'
After my first 'bankruptcy', I hid in my rented room for half a month without going out, even reluctant to add sausage to my instant noodles. Later, I borrowed 50,000 from a childhood friend, thinking, 'I'll pay it back when I break even.' But in 2019, I made back 30,000 during a small bull market, only for the 2020 crash on March 12 to deal me a fatal blow — that day, Bitcoin dropped 50% in a single day, and my position was liquidated, leaving just 2,700 in my account.
During my second 'bankruptcy', I even thought about smashing my computer. My parents, upon finding out, didn’t scold me; my mother just said with red eyes, 'If it doesn’t work out, just find a job. We can still help a bit.' This sentence pierced my heart like a needle. That night, I deleted all trading software, but secretly reinstalled it at midnight — I wasn’t reconciled; I always felt something was missing.
Second, stick to the 12 moving average sayings, and do the simple things to the extreme.
The real turning point came from an old book I found at a used bookstore (practical techniques for moving averages). The cover was worn out, and inside was a yellowed note with 12 sayings about moving averages, such as '5-day crosses above 20-day, golden cross buy; 20-day breaks below 60-day, death cross sell' and 'moving averages must break through when converged, a volume reduction pullback is an opportunity.'
At first, I didn’t take it seriously; after all, I had learned MACD and RSI before, thinking moving averages were too simple. But with a 'dead horse as a live horse' mentality, I tried it on a demo account for half a month — unexpectedly, in a volatile market, moving averages proved to be more effective than those complex indicators. For example, in June 2020, when Bitcoin was hovering around 9,000 dollars, the 5-day, 10-day, and 20-day moving averages were tightly clustered together. Following the saying 'buy when moving averages converge and break', I built positions on the day the price stood above the 20-day moving average. Later, when it rose to 12,000 dollars, I took profit by following 'sell when the 5-day turns'; I made 30% profit in half a month on the demo.
Later, I operated with the remaining 2,700 strictly following my sayings: only do spot trading, don’t touch leverage; single position size shouldn’t exceed 10%; set stop-loss 2% below the 60-day moving average, and take profit when the 5-day moving average turns. In the beginning, it was particularly torturous — for example, in March 2021, Ethereum dropped from 1,800 to 1,300 dollars, and my position was just bought near the 20-day moving average. When it fell to the stop-loss line, my hands were shaking as I tried to 'sell'; after selling, it dropped another 200 dollars. At that moment, I realized: 'It’s not that the moving averages are useless; it’s that I couldn’t hold myself back before.'
During the 2021 bull market, I used this set of 'dead rules' to turn 2,700 into 5.3 million. The key operation was when Bitcoin rose from 40,000 to 69,000 dollars; all my friends were shouting 'it can break 100,000,' but I followed the sayings and cleared 30% of my position when the 5-day moving average turned and the 20-day moving average hadn’t yet broken; later, when Bitcoin retraced to 45,000 dollars, I bought back when 'the 5-day crossed above the 20-day' — this buying and selling made me earn 800,000 more than holding a full position.
Third, what’s hidden in the trading system is not just technology, but also human psychology.
Many people ask me: 'Are the moving average sayings really that effective?' In fact, they haven’t seen that my system contains the lessons learned from the past 10 years.
In terms of trading philosophy, I’ve long given up on the notion of 'getting rich overnight'; I only follow the 'trend' — no predicting tops or bottoms, just waiting for the moving averages to give clear signals. For instance, during the 2022 bear market, when Bitcoin fell from 69,000 to 15,000, I was completely out of the market. It wasn’t that I had a precise prediction; it was that the 60-day moving average was always downward, and according to the saying, 'don’t enter in a bearish arrangement,' I really didn’t touch it.
In terms of emotion control, I have a silly method: I write down the sayings on sticky notes and paste them on my computer screen. In October 2023, SOL surged 40% in a single day, and everyone in the group was flaunting their profits. I was tempted to chase, but seeing the note 'stay away from sudden spikes and don’t chase highs,' I held back — later, SOL dropped back to its original position in three days, and I avoided a calamity. Another time, I bought according to signals three times and incurred small losses each time, starting to doubt the system. I simply stopped for a week, pulled out the market data from 2017 to 2022 for backtesting, and found the win rate of the sayings was always above 70%, only short-term fluctuations, which reassured me.
In terms of risk management, I set two iron rules for myself: First, single-loss should not exceed 2% of the principal. For example, if the current account is 26 million, a single loss should not exceed 520,000. Even if I’m wrong five times in a row, it won’t hurt me significantly. Second, profits must be taken promptly — from 2022 to now, I’ve withdrawn 8.3 million from the exchange, part of which I used to buy a house for my parents back home, part set aside for my child's education fund, and the remaining 2 million is in a fixed deposit at the bank. Even if the crypto market crashes again, my family’s life won’t be affected.
Fourth, you only understand after enduring: the greatest path is the simplest; slow equals fast.
Now I spend no more than 1 hour a day watching the market — I check the moving averages at 9 a.m., and if there are no issues with my positions, I shut down the software. In the afternoon, I pick up my child from school, and in the evening, I walk with my wife. Some say I’m 'wasting the market', but only I know that 10 years ago, I stared at the market for 12 hours every day and lost a fortune; now I’ve learned to 'wait for signals' and instead earn more steadily.
A few days ago, I met the childhood friend who lent me 50,000 before; he said, 'You’ve really made it through.' I smiled and said, 'It’s not that I’ve made it through; I’m just scared from failing, which made me learn not to mess around.' In the crypto circle, there are many techniques more powerful than moving average sayings, but very few can stick to simple methods to the end — some people earn a little and want to switch to a more 'powerful' system, while others lose and doubt the methods are useless, only to end up going in circles and returning to square one.
If there’s one truth to tell from the past 10 years, it’s this: trading cryptocurrencies isn’t about who makes money the fastest, it’s about who lasts the longest. Find a system you understand and can execute, cultivate it deeply like tending to a small plot of land, and in time, it will naturally become your "ATM." Those nights and days you endure, those moments you resist chasing highs or holding onto losing positions, are your most valuable assets.
Small funds wanting to turn around rely not on luck but on understanding and execution.
Here are the six iron rules I earned with ten years of youth:
First, completely eliminate 'gambling mentality.' Forget about 'getting rich overnight,' and remember 'the miracle of compound interest.' Turning 10,000 into 1 million requires seven rounds of doubling, not one hundred-fold in one go. Break down big goals into small targets that double each cycle.
Second, guard your principal as if guarding your life. The greatest advantage of small funds is flexibility, while the greatest disadvantage is a low margin for error. Before any operation, you must calculate the worst-case loss; single losses must never exceed 10% of the total capital.
Third, position in bear markets, harvest in bull markets. When the fear and greed index is below 20, use 80% of your funds to regularly buy Bitcoin. Don’t complain about slow 'growth'; it’s your unsinkable aircraft carrier, ensuring you can keep up with the bull market.
Fourth, use 'bullets' precisely. Use 20% of funds to seek 3-5 new promising project sectors (like DePIN, RWA, AI), thoroughly research, and build positions in batches. Stay far away from all MEME coins and air coins.
Fifth, selling in a bull market is the harder art. Set staggered take-profit points (3x, 5x, 8x); sell 1/3 each time a target is reached. Convert profits back to Bitcoin or stablecoins; never try to earn the last penny.
Sixth, the most important point: investing is for a better life. Each cycle, you should withdraw some profits to improve your living conditions; this not only provides positive feedback but also avoids the illusion of being rich on paper. Remember, only profits that are withdrawn are real profits.
The ten-year cycle made me understand: the most precious thing in the crypto circle is not the short-term profits, but the ability to survive long-term. As long as you’re still at the table, there will always be the next opportunity. Patience is more important than intelligence, risk control is more important than profit, and staying alive is more important than anything else.
Current state of the crypto circle: some can’t hold on and leave, while others are quietly accumulating enough for the next round.
Everyone in the crypto circle understands that this industry never really has the word 'stable' in it, but there are always patterns to follow. Right now in the community, half are complaining about the bad market, while the other half are secretly accumulating — this is the most realistic situation at present.
The key to the cycles of bulls and bears is actually hidden in the candlesticks.
The Bitcoin halving cycle is like a precise alarm clock. After the halvings in 2012, 2016, and 2020, which time didn’t it usher in a crazy bull market? Now there is less than a year until the next halving, some are panicking and cutting losses, while others are watching support levels and accumulating in batches.
I’ve seen the most ruthless retail investors, who completely wore out their candlestick charts in the bear market — it’s not about looking for rises or falls, but focusing on 'patterns.' For example, the 'lower shadow bullish line' when ETH retraced to the 200-day moving average, or the 'doji reversal signal' when BTC was in a horizontal range at 30,000 dollars; these are the markets speaking quietly.
Don’t disbelieve in technical analysis; those who say 'reading candlesticks is useless' either have never suffered losses because of it or have never made money from it. If you can’t even distinguish between a bullish engulfing candle and a bearish engulfing candle, what makes you think you can avoid a market crash?
In today’s crypto circle, there are two types of people who understand things clearly.
The first type is 'dull players': regardless of whether the community is bullish or bearish, their dollar-cost averaging alarm never falters. They invest when Bitcoin is at 30,000 dollars, increase their positions at 20,000 dollars, and now their average cost is 25,000 dollars, just waiting for the next wind to come. They understand one principle: accumulate coins in bear markets, accumulate USDT in bull markets; rhythm is more important than entry points.
The second type is 'scalpel players': they only do swing trades and never greedily go for the whole segment. For example, if SOL drops from 100 dollars to 80 dollars, they try a small position when a 'bullish engulfing line' appears, and sell once it rebounds to 90 dollars, making 10 points is more stable than anything. Their stop-losses are stricter than anyone else’s, triggering a 5% stop-loss immediately without letting positions evolve into 'long-term investments.'
Ironically, those who ask 'Is the bull here yet?' are the most likely to be harvested. The bottom of a bear market is not guessed; it’s endured; the top of a bull market is not calculated; it’s risen.
A sincere word for the brothers still in the game.
Those who leave the market now are likely to come back when it breaks 40,000 dollars next time; those who are randomly gambling now may not last until dawn. The true survival rules in the crypto circle are just two:
Divide your principal into 10 parts, use at most 3 parts during a bear market, and hold tightly onto the rest.
Spend 10 minutes daily watching candlesticks; regardless of how noisy the news is, the market will never deceive you.
Many people get caught in a strange loop when trading: clearly seeing the market direction, but their accounts get liquidated first. This isn’t an intelligence issue; it’s about being too eager for quick results, always wanting to strike it rich in one go.
Nowadays, too many people misunderstand 'rolling positions'. They think adding funds when they see a rise and holding on desperately during a drop is the way to go, but often the direction isn’t wrong, yet their accounts are zeroed out first. This kind of operation seems aggressive, but in reality, they’re taking unnecessary risks with their principal.
In recent years, I’ve been able to survive in the market thanks to the silly method of 'rolling profits.' Initially, I experimented with small amounts of capital, like investing a thousand dollars to test the waters. If I made profits, I’d use the profits to add positions, and if the market moved as expected, I’d patiently hold. Once the direction was wrong, I’d immediately cut losses and start over. The whole process lacks excitement, even a bit boring, but my account curves have become increasingly stable.
It’s not that you can’t go heavy, but you absolutely must not gamble recklessly when the market is uncertain. There are always people in the market: with only 10,000 in their account, they dare to open a 9,800 position, thinking about making 50% and leaving. But in reality, they often encounter a false breakout, and their account is cut in half, missing even the chance to turn around.
Those who truly excel at trading all share a common trait: when the market hasn’t started, they can endure the loneliness of being out of the market; when the rhythm is right, they’re decisive when taking action. The money they earn is never through luck, but through precise timing and a scientific rolling mechanism.
In fact, trading doesn’t require understanding all those flashy strategies and indicators; just grasp one thing: the principal is your life, and profits are your bullets. When real market opportunities arise, you have to use bullets to exchange for more wealth, not risk your life for that elusive luck.
I have also experienced the agony of losses and the joy of recovery; I know very well the feeling of struggling in the market. I want to tell you: don’t rush to make quick money in trading; taking it slow is the way to go far, but never walk blindly.
A must-read guide for entering the crypto circle | Avoid 90% of the pitfalls.
Want to play in the crypto circle? First, understand these 'unwritten rules'; don’t be the chives waiting to be harvested.
First, trading time ≠ rest time; focus on the golden time slots.
The window with the most volatility: Beijing time 21:30 - 07:30 the next day (European and American traders are active), large market movements (sharp rise/fall) are likely to occur in the early morning.
Day + night arbitrage logic:
✔️ Don’t panic sell after a big drop during the day; it’s a good time to buy the dip (the European and American markets are likely to pull the market up).
✖️ Don’t chase highs after a big rise during the day; you might get liquidated at night.
Second, 'pin needle' is a signal flare; understanding it can lead to big profits.
Quick bottom probing/rise and then bounce = 'pin needle'; this is a trend reversal point:
▪️ Strong downward pin (price plummets then bounces back) → Strong buy signal, expect a rebound.
▪️ Strong upward pin (price surges then falls back) → Strong sell signal, expect a decline.
Third, the news front is a 'script'; don’t be a fool.
The tactics of good news and bad news:
Before major good news is announced, the price often rises first; once the news hits, it’s 'good news fully priced in turns to bad news', leading to a sell-off.
Look at community enthusiasm in reverse:
✔️ Coins being overly hyped in the group → Traders want to harvest, shorting may earn profits.
✖️ Cold coins that no one in the group mentions → Could be a dark horse; test the waters with a small amount.
Fourth, position management = life-saving talisman; don’t step into these pits.
Heavy positions are bound to lead to liquidation: exchanges target heavy accounts for 'harvesting'; even a small increase in volatility can lead to liquidation.
Stop-loss = reversal: just after cutting losses, the market rebounds? The traders are waiting for you to 'get off' before pulling up.
Stuck before breaking even: Suddenly the price stops rising when you’re close to recovering your investment, forcing you to cut losses (don’t fall for it, hold on!).
Fifth, emotions are the enemy; don’t be led by them.
Excitement = signal of a sharp drop: When you’re happy to add positions, the traders are preparing to dump.
FOMO trap: The market rises when you have no money? They intentionally lure you in to take your position; stay calm and don’t be impulsive.
Sixth, core thinking: 80% of the market is manipulated; you need to 'take action after the fact.'
Don't follow the crowd blindly! Wait for the traders to show direction (clear up/down trend) before entering; what matters is patience and determination.
Remember: surviving > short-term profits; following patterns and controlling emotions are the keys to long-term engagement.
The essence of the crypto world is a 'game'; only those who understand the patterns and can remain calm can profit. Don’t fantasize about 'getting rich overnight'; first, learn how to 'not get harvested'; making money is just a byproduct.
