📊 Current situation

• Price: ~$0.6082 (surpassing the psychological threshold of $0.60, indicating strong buying pressure).

• Trading volume: ~$736M → new capital entering, supporting short-term upward momentum.

• Marketcap: ~$3.19B → belongs to the mid-cap altcoin group, still has room for growth if the ecosystem expands strongly.

⸻

🔓 The unlocking story of September (~12% supply)

• Current circulating supply: ~5.3B ARB.

• Additional unlock supply: ~635M ARB (~386M USD at the price of $0.60).

• This is a very large unlock (12% of circulating supply) → short-term selling pressure is inevitable.

❗However:

• Arbitrum usually has a controlled allocation strategy, rather than dumping immediately → tokens may be used for development, funds, staking incentives, liquidity mining.

• If big funds do not sell but continue to hold, the market can fully absorb this supply.

⸻

🧐 Impact on price

1. Short term (September)

• It is very easy to have a correction to the support area of $0.55–$0.57.

• If BTC/ETH is sideways or slightly down → the unlock pressure becomes clearer.

2. Mid-term (Q4/2025)

• Arbitrum remains a top L2 with high TVL, stable DeFi capital flow.

• Many incentive programs are still maintained → attracting users and projects to build on the platform.

• If cash flow is maintained, the $0.70–$0.75 mark is entirely feasible in Q4.

⸻

🎯 Strategic scenario

• Bull case (price increase):

Maintain $0.60, breakout at $0.65 → aiming for $0.70–$0.75.

• Bear case (price decrease):

Dropping to $0.57 → deeper adjustment to $0.50–$0.52, where strong buying pressure exists.

• Neutral case (sideways):

Sideways around the $0.57–$0.65 range until the unlock effect is absorbed.

⸻

✅ Conclusion

• Short-term risk: Unlocking 12% will definitely create selling pressure, likely causing price adjustments in September.

• Mid-term opportunity (Q4/2025): DeFi ecosystem on Arbitrum + high TVL + incentive program keeps ARB in a top L2 position.

• For investors: This is a time to manage risk, wait for a correction to accumulate, rather than FOMO when the price exceeds $0.60.