Recently, the US cryptocurrency market has been mired in policy turmoil, with regulatory ambiguity, partisan games, and actions by giants interwoven, leaving ordinary investors caught in the midst, and the market has become a high-risk 'casino.'
1. Regulatory 'kick the ball,' leaving the market in a fog of compliance.
After the US Supreme Court transferred key cryptocurrency cases to the SEC, the regulatory system has been thrown into complete disorder, highlighting two core contradictions:
Ongoing internal conflicts among institutions: The SEC and CFTC continue to argue over whether 'Ethereum is a security.' A California court initially ruled that ETH is a security, only to be overturned by other courts, leaving the boundaries of corporate compliance completely blurred.
Policies become tools for party struggles: To attract cryptocurrency voters, Trump promised to pardon the founder of 'Silk Road' and push for Bitcoin to be included in national reserves; the Biden administration, on the other hand, limits mining electricity usage through increased taxes under the guise of 'national security.' Efficiency among regulatory agencies has plummeted, with the SEC's case handling period extended from 8 months to 14 months, and backlogged cases continue to increase.
2. Power intervenes in the market: From 'locking up BTC' to 'manipulating stablecoins'
Political forces directly intervene in the crypto market, reshaping the industry landscape:
Trump's BTC strategy: In March of this year, he led the government to lock up 200,000 BTC (accounting for 6% of circulation) into the treasury, claiming 'never to sell,' superficially boosting coin prices while actually aiming to make Bitcoin an auxiliary tool of dollar hegemony; his family has also been revealed to plan to issue their own stablecoin, following the previous farce of 'Trumpcoin' which surged by $10 billion before plummeting 80%, with the team cashing out $350 million and fleeing.
Stablecoins become 'puppets' of the dollar: The new stablecoin bill requires that USDT, USDC, and others maintain 100% reserves in dollars and accept real-time monitoring by the Federal Reserve. Even small vendors in Southeast Asia need to report their purchases using Tether to New York, essentially bringing global stablecoins under dollar control.
Three bills conceal selfish motives: The issuance of stablecoins will be strictly regulated by the Federal Reserve if overissued, Bitcoin is classified as a commodity to facilitate the entry of large institutions, and the issuance of a digital dollar by the Federal Reserve is prohibited to prevent impacts on Bitcoin. What seems like market regulation is, in fact, turning the crypto world into a 'dollar colony.'
3. Severe market volatility: Behind the frenzy lies a bloody harvest.
Policies and the Federal Reserve's movements stir the market together, leading to extreme short-term trends:
Market trends go on a 'roller coaster' with policies: After Powell hinted at a 'possible rate cut,' Ethereum surged 15% in a single day, and Bitcoin soared to $117,000; however, liquidation amounts reached $700 million within 24 hours, with 160,000 investors losing all their investments. High leverage combined with policy fluctuations poses risks akin to 'walking a tightrope over a cliff.'
Changes in fund flows: Bitcoin's market capitalization share has fallen below 60% (for the first time in four years), the size of Ethereum ETFs has surpassed $20 billion, and firms hoarding ETH funds have reached $30 billion. Large funds are accelerating their shift from Bitcoin to other cryptocurrencies, and the saying 'the more chaotic the politics, the crazier the speculation' has become the current reality.
Frequent black swan events: History has repeatedly shown that political events dominate the cryptocurrency market—In 2019, Trump's threats of military action against Iran led to a 20% single-day increase in BTC; in September 2023, conflicts between California and federal environmental policies caused ETH to drop 12% in two days before rising 23%. Now, with policies changing constantly, the $300 million settlement agreed upon by the CFTC and KuCoin may fall apart due to a single statement from Trump, and the market has become a 'startled bird.'
4. Survival guide for retail investors: Stay away from traps, uphold the bottom line.
In the current policy-driven market, ordinary investors must remember three key principles:
1. Short-term position control: Market fluctuations triggered by policies are often overreactions. When ETH plummets, it may be bought in batches, but positions must not exceed 50%, and funds should be reserved for sudden crashes.
2. Focus on two major risk points: When tech stocks in the US (especially Nasdaq) decline, there is an 80% probability that the crypto market will follow suit; a single tweet from Trump can cause Bitcoin to fluctuate by 5% instantly, and it is advisable to close positions before overnight trading.
3. Avoid pitfalls, focus on the main lines: Decentralized exchanges (DEX) may become a safe haven, but algorithmic stablecoins and small tokens, except for Dai, are high-risk traps; in the long term, one can focus on compliant exchanges (such as Coinbase), Bitcoin/Ethereum ETFs, and publicly listed companies hoarding coins (such as Tesla) as compliant main lines.
5. The harsh truth: Ideals cannot compete with power; decentralization is merely a 'dream.'
The essence of the current crypto market has been fully exposed: policymakers themselves are the 'dealers,' Wall Street is gambling with pension funds and university endowments (27% of the funds for BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF), earning commissions while losses are borne by ordinary people. For retail investors, coding ideals cannot withstand power games; the vision of decentralization shatters under the political iron fist—news is more important than technical analysis, position size is more important than faith, and only by maintaining rationality can one avoid becoming the 'chives' harvested in this 'casino.'#ETH创历史新高 #比特币巨鲸换仓以太坊
