Next Week's Macroeconomic Outlook: Don't Get Too Crazy About Rate Cuts, Don't Panic About PCE

Here are the key points the market will focus on in the upcoming week:

On Tuesday at 03:15, 2026 FOMC voting member and Dallas Fed President Logan will speak and participate in a panel discussion at the 100th anniversary of the Bank of Mexico;

On Tuesday at 07:15, FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams will deliver a keynote speech at the 100th anniversary of the Bank of Mexico;

On Tuesday at 22:00, the U.S. August Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, and the U.S. August Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index;

On Thursday at 00:45, 2027 FOMC voting member and Richmond Fed President Barkin will speak;

On Thursday at 20:30, the U.S. second quarter annualized quarter-over-quarter GDP revision;

On Friday at 06:00, Fed Governor Waller will speak on monetary policy;

On Friday at 20:30, the U.S. July Core PCE Price Index year-over-year, U.S. July Personal Spending month-over-month, and U.S. July Core PCE Price Index month-over-month.

Looking ahead to the U.S. dollar index, as labor market data has become a primary focus for the Federal Reserve, and market participants almost fully expect a rate cut next month, the downward pressure on the dollar is likely to continue. Unless future employment reports significantly change the outlook, the dollar index is expected to remain under pressure, especially when facing currencies supported by more hawkish central banks. For investors, a rate cut may be just around the corner, but the subsequent easing path is far from smooth, and the uncertainty of policy prospects is becoming a new focal point.