The Federal Reserve usually raises interest rates when the economy is overheating and inflation is high, so it chooses to raise rates to cool down the market. However, the suppressive effect of rate hikes does not take immediate effect; it typically takes about a year to fully transmit across various sectors. Therefore, in the first year after the Fed raises rates, both BTC and U.S. stocks tend to maintain a good upward momentum until the end of the rate hikes. By that time, the suppressive effect has fully transmitted, and the economy begins to decline, leading to a recession;

Thus, the Fed will need to inject liquidity to stimulate the economy. Consequently, the Fed often lowers rates in response to weak signals in the U.S. economy or labor market. Before the Fed lowers rates, the capital markets may actually decline, and then in the later stages of rate cuts, there will be an influx of liquidity, marking the start of a bull market.

I expect the next wave of a super bull market to begin in July next year, which aligns with Bitcoin's cyclical pattern of every four years. This year, Bitcoin is expected to peak, potentially experiencing a significant correction due to the onset of a recession, followed by a bottom emerging next year, which will mark the starting point of a bull market;

Of course, the huge variable here is whether the U.S. can avoid a recession after maintaining high interest rates for so long. Previous high-interest environments have led to recessions. If we can miraculously avoid a short-term recession this time, then there may still be some gains during the early stages of rate cuts.

My personal plan is to watch for a bottom in August and September to buy some, and then by October or November at the latest, to clear out everything because these two months are usually the best-performing months in the crypto market. This also aligns with the previously mentioned four-year cycle peak; it's almost time to exit. Remember to exit completely by November at the latest, and then observe for a while before making further decisions.

Note: The chart shows the Federal Reserve's interest rates and U.S. stocks (using U.S. stocks to represent Bitcoin).