The core idea of looking at altcoins actually revolves around several key dimensions, simple and direct:
First, the narrative needs to be explosive
Currently, the market recognizes these few main lines: AI, RWA (Real World Assets), Restaking, new public chain stories, and even Meme coins. No matter how great the project or how hardcore the technology, if no one is buying in, it's just self-indulgence. Only stories that capital is willing to support and the market is willing to buy into are the real trends.
Second, market capitalization and circulation are crucial
For new coins, focus on market cap size, while for old coins, watch the unlocking rhythm. No matter how good the story is, if the market cap is already in the hundreds of billions, the upside is basically capped; conversely, coins with single-digit market caps and healthy circulation can explode with just a slight push from funds. Never touch those coins that have dozens of times the chips unlocking in the short term; the buyer won't outpace the seller. Some coins' unlocking periods may induce a pump to attract more buyers, but more often than not, the downward risk-reward ratio is too unfavorable!
Third, strength and background need to be hardcore
Being listed on top exchanges like Binance, OKX, and Coinbase at least indicates that the project team is financially sound—either backed by strong capital or an experienced team. Also, look at the investors behind the project; if top-tier funds like a16z or Paradigm are backing it, the project is less likely to blow up, significantly increasing its survival rate.
Fourth, the token economic model needs to be healthy
Is there real income? Is there a buyback or burn mechanism? Are the interests of the token and the protocol deeply aligned? Such coins, once the market warms up, will attract renewed attention to valuation logic. On the contrary, tokens relying solely on governance functions and unlimited unlocking are essentially predetermined cannon fodder.
Fifth, on-chain data and community activity need to be authentic
Look at the real user count, TVL (Total Value Locked), active wallet addresses, and the activity level of Twitter and Discord communities. Don't be fooled by the false prosperity created by bots; many projects' popularity is artificially inflated.
Targets that meet these conditions—listed on top exchanges, backed by capital, mainstream narratives, and reasonable market caps and circulations—may experience short-term volatility that is uncomfortable, but in the medium term, the odds are extremely high, and buying into them is likely not to incur losses.
