Let's talk about a few core dimensions I use to judge altcoins for everyone's reference:

1. Narrative and Market Focus

Currently, market funds are concentrated on several clear main lines: AI, RWA, Restaking, new blockchain narratives, and even Meme.

Capital is willing to step in, and if there's a story that people are willing to buy into, there's room for price increase. No matter how good the technology is, without narrative support, it can easily become 'self-appreciating' and suffer from lack of liquidity.

2. Market Capitalization and Circulation

For new projects, market capitalization is key: the smaller the market cap, the greater the potential space.

For older projects, be wary of unlocks: once faced with a large unlock, selling pressure can easily continue to suppress the coin price. Especially avoid entering targets that are about to have significant unlocks, as the downside risk is far greater than the rebound opportunity.

Occasionally, there may be a pump before short-term unlocks, but the overall risk-reward ratio is relatively low.

3. Strength and Background Endorsement

If a project can get listed on major exchanges like Binance, OK, Coinbase, etc., it usually means the project has a certain level of strength and resources.

In addition, having support from well-known capital (like a16z, Paradigm, etc.) or a mature team in charge enhances risk resistance and ongoing operational capability, making it at least 'less likely to suddenly go to zero.'

4. Economic Model and Value Capture

Key questions include: Does the protocol have real income? Is there a buyback/burn mechanism? Is the token strongly tied to the protocol's value?

Projects with value accumulation mechanisms are more likely to attract funding when the market warms up. In contrast, those with governance function + unlimited inflation models are likely to be cannon fodder.

5. On-chain Data and Community Engagement

Focus on real on-chain data: number of active addresses, TVL, distribution of large holdings; at the same time, observe the heat of the community and the true participation of users—be sure to filter out bot interference.

To summarize:

If a project meets the following criteria: listed on major exchanges + strong resource backing + fits market narrative + healthy market cap/circulation, then the probability of success in long-term investment will significantly increase.

Of course, no strategy can guarantee avoiding pitfalls 100%, but at least you can position yourself on the side with a better probability advantage. #ETH创历史新高 #杰克逊霍尔会议 $ETH