Huatai Fixed Income: A 25bp Rate Cut by the Federal Reserve in September May Be the Basic Scenario

According to news from Hashi Chain, Huatai Securities Fixed Income Research indicates that the current economic situation in the United States shows a downward risk in employment growth, which may require policy adjustments in response. Following Powell's speech, the market reacted positively to the Federal Reserve's easing policy, increasing the likelihood of a soft landing for the U.S. economy, with prices of major asset classes outside the dollar rising across the board. Looking ahead to the upcoming monetary policy path, the Federal Reserve's policies are expected to lean towards easing, and a 25bp rate cut in September is a likely basic scenario, with the possibility of two 25bp cuts in the fourth quarter even higher than one. If further consideration is given to the impact of the Trump administration on the Federal Reserve's decisions, the magnitude of this easing cycle may exceed market expectations.