As of 14:00, the ETH price fluctuated between $4699 and $4742. Support should focus on two levels: the first support at $4650, which is the EMA120 moving average plus the demand zone on the 4-hour chart; maintaining this level is considered short-term safe. If it truly breaks down, don’t panic; strong support at $4500 is waiting, which is the Fibonacci 50% retracement level plus the previous breakout point, showing considerable resilience.

Resistance should also be noted: the first resistance at $4900 is both a psychological barrier and the weekly closing high; breaking through this will require strength. Further up, $5000 is strong resistance, not just a technical hurdle but also a watershed for market sentiment; only a breakthrough will give more potential for the market.

Pay attention to volume and price signals for risks: the 1-hour RSI (14) has soared to 78, indicating it is already overbought, and the MACD red bars are still shortening, showing clear signs of short-term stagnation; the 24-hour trading volume has shrunk to $12 billion, a 30% drop from its peak, and selling pressure may be building up secretly.

However, the bulls also have their confidence: the ETH/BTC exchange rate has reached 0.0418, marking a nearly 9-month high, with institutional funds still flowing in; on-chain data is also strong, with Lido seeing a net inflow of $700 million in a single day, and whales are still converting BTC to ETH; moreover, after breaking the historical high of $4871, the descending channel has been completely broken, providing technical support.

Finally, regarding operations, Long Ge suggests in the afternoon: wait for a pullback to around $4720-$4680 to go long, targeting $4765-$4835. Important reminder! The market changes quickly, stop-loss must be well managed; this is just personal advice, everyone should consider their own situation and not blindly follow the operations. #ETH