1. Introduction
In mid-August, ETH strongly broke through $4,700, creating a new high in four years, while SOL oscillated mostly in the $180-$200 range during the same period, significantly lagging behind BTC and ETH's price performance. Recall the meme frenzy triggered by Solana on platforms like Pump.fun in 2024, which was once seen as the terminator of ETH. On January 19, 2025, SOL hit a historical high of around $293, followed by retraction, sideways movement, and fluctuating sentiment, forming a divergence from ETH's 'steadily strengthening' trend. Behind the surface lies a systemic difference in capital entry, value anchors, and network narratives. So what are the reasons behind this? Can the Solana ecosystem create glory again, and can the SOL token take off again?
This article will analyze the on-chain data and ecological performance of Solana, dissecting the core reasons for SOL's phase lag behind ETH, and analyzing the advantages and disadvantages for SOL to take off again. Based on this, it will forecast the possible trends of Solana in Q3-Q4 2025, providing readers with a systematic reference.
2. Comprehensive Analysis of Solana's Ecological Performance in 2025
Solana's growth path is clearly different from Ethereum: it does not capture value through 'high gas fees + deflation', but relies on high throughput + ultra-low fees on a single chain to accommodate massive long tails and high-frequency trading.
1. Core On-Chain Indicators
Since the beginning of this year, the Solana ecosystem has shown a trend of 'high-level retreat followed by oscillation upward'. TVL and stablecoin stock are exhibiting a stepwise upward trend, with current TVL at approximately $10.42 billion and stablecoin market cap at around $11.62 billion, indicating that the on-chain 'underlying dollar liquidity pool' has returned to the billion-dollar level and stabilized in the billion-dollar range; on-chain transaction numbers remain high, maintaining an active 'high-frequency/long tail' trading state; $SOL's total market cap significantly retreated in Q1, but has shown a wave-like oscillating upward trend since Q2; from the structural changes, the resurgence of meme heat has marginally improved DEX/chain fees but has not yet returned to this year's peak.
Source: https://defillama.com/chain/solana
2. Meme Coin Sector
As the leading network for meme coins, Solana has produced star meme coins like BONK, WIF, POPCAT, MOODENG, PNUT, TRUMP, PENGU, FARTCOIN, USELESS, etc. The common characteristics of Solana memes are 'high volatility + strong rotation + strong event-driven', and currently, the total market cap of Solana's meme sector is about $11.7 billion. The top 5 hottest meme coins since the beginning of the year are as follows:
PENGU: A 'brand coin' closely tied to popular NFT IP, with physical toy sales exceeding $10 million, covering over 3,100 stores, and Canary Capital has submitted a PENGU ETF application to the SEC; it has significantly strengthened this year, with its market cap ranking among the top in Solana memes.
BONK: The elder of Solana's dog-themed coins and a community traffic entry, it has experienced noticeable growth with the exposure of LetsBonk.fun, although it has seen significant retraction recently.
TRUMP: A Trump meme, categorized as an emotion-driven political topic coin, has been oscillating downward since its launch in January; the Trump crypto dinner in May sparked a brief resurgence, but it remains in a retraction state, sensitive to event catalysts.
FARTCOIN: Its popularity stems from humorous themes and viral propagation: users submit fart jokes or memes to earn tokens, each transaction produces a digital fart sound, combined with AI narratives (created by AI Truth Terminal), creating an AI-meme hybrid that easily triggers FOMO.
USELESS: USELESS emphasizes 'uselessness' as a selling point, satirizing the hollow promises of other coins, becoming the most honest meme coin; the higher the price, the more useless it is, thus attracting speculation easily.
Source: https://www.coingecko.com/en/categories/solana-meme-coins
3. Launchpad Sector
The launchpad competition on Solana has evolved from 'who is cheaper/faster to list' to a contest over 'creator economy, token buybacks, community governance'.
Pump.fun: With a 1% trading fee and 'foolproof issuance', it ignited the whole chain meme. In mid-August 2025, its weekly revenue was about $13.48 million, returning to a phase high; cumulative revenue has surpassed $800 million; simultaneously, the dramatic reversal of 'market share from 5% to ~90% in two weeks' has attracted attention across the network.
LetsBonk.fun: Rapidly rising after its launch in April 2025, it once captured 78%+ of the issuance market share in July, followed by a decline in share. Its 'community mobilization + low-threshold issuance' path remains one of the core competitors to Pump.fun.
Bags: Focusing on the 'creator revenue/share' route, emphasizing creator earnings and continuous distribution, entering the niche track bound with opinion leaders/creators, with trading volume exceeding $1 billion in the past 30 days.
Moonshot: A fiat entry-level app that supports Apple Pay direct top-up and fiat deposits. It once topped the US App Store 'Finance Free Apps' list, significantly lowering the entry barrier for newcomers.
Believe: A social media-type entry with 'replying to post equals issuing token', which faced controversy since June due to halting part of the on-chain revenue/shifting to offline payment, and adjusted automatic listings to 'manual review'.
Source: https://dune.com/adam_tehc/memecoin-wars
4. DeFi Sector
Solana's DeFi resembles 'high-frequency/long-tail trading infrastructure'. Raydium/Orca undertake DEX trading and liquidity, Jupiter/Drift handle derivative trading and route fragmented liquidity, Kamino improves capital efficiency, and Jito/Marinade provide 'stable interest + liquidity' underlying assets.
Raydium (AMM + ecological launch pool): A veteran DEX/AMM on Solana, undertaking most of the long-tail spot liquidity and launch pool functions; fees and revenue are consistently at the top among peers, presenting a positive feedback of 'platform cash flow - token value'.
Jupiter (aggregator + trading entry): Solana's default-level router, integrating liquidity from multiple DEXes like Raydium; the JPL pool aggregates a large amount of liquidity and has announced the upcoming launch of a lending section.
Kamino (unified liquidity/lending/market-making position management): Known for 'active market-making treasury + lending', TVL has long remained at the forefront of Solana, becoming a 'distribution center' for LPs and funds.
Jito (LST + MEV infrastructure): By using the Jito client/block engine/'Bundles', it makes MEV explicit, and allocates part of the MEV to stakers through jitoSOL. Jito tips already account for a significant proportion of on-chain 'real economic value (REV)'.
3. Analysis of the Reasons for SOL Lagging Behind ETH
ETH, through spot ETFs, has opened a complete closed loop of 'compliant funds → secondary liquidity → market making/derivatives', further compounded by larger corporate treasury scales and the network narrative of 'on-chain financial hub', forming a stronger capital absorption and valuation anchor; Solana focuses on a trading-oriented ecology of 'high-frequency/long-tail applications', and its price elasticity relies more on thematic prosperity (memes/launchpads, etc.), making it more prone to 'lack of anchoring' during risk appetite declines or thematic rotations.
1. ETF Capital Increment Gap
SOL: The US stock market already has a Solana ETF with staking returns (SSK), but it is complex in structure and not a SEC-registered spot ETF, with a cumulative net inflow of only about $150 million since its listing, far less than the capital-absorbing ability of ETH ETFs. Short-term market attention is focused on VanEck and Grayscale's SOL spot ETF applications, which, if approved around October, could open up similar compliant models and passive capital channels as ETH.
ETH: The scale of spot ETFs has surpassed $22 billion, becoming the main entry for institutional funds. Leading institutions (like BlackRock) are advancing the application for 'stakable ETH ETFs', which, if realized, will combine 'staking returns' and 'compliance channels', further solidifying long-term allocation.
2. Discrepancy in Corporate Holdings
SOL: The Upexi, known as 'SOL Micro Strategy', currently has an NAV of approximately $365 million and holds 1.8 million SOL, inviting Arthur Hayes to join the advisory board to strengthen strategy and volume; other listed companies (like DFDV, BTCM) are also slowly increasing their holdings, but the overall scale still has a significant gap compared to ETH's treasury strategy.
ETH: BitMine Immersion (BMNR), which positions itself as 'ETH Micro Strategy', plans to increase its financing scale to $20 billion, with a current NAV of about $5.3 billion, second only to Bitcoin's MicroStrategy; at the same time, endorsements from globally influential opinion leaders like Tom Lee significantly strengthen market narratives and capital summons.
3. Differences in Network Narrative Positioning
Solana: More inclined toward 'single chain high throughput + ultra-low fee' consumer-grade applications and speculative hotspots (memes, launchpads); although it has made multiple attempts to penetrate RWA this year, most have ended in failure; in August, CMBI × DigiFT issued US dollar money market fund tokens (CMBMINT) on Solana, which is a rare compliant RWA positive case, leading SOL to rise above $200, seen by the market as a potential narrative switch starting point.
Ethereum: Ethereum is building compliant and sustainable on-chain financial infrastructure and clearing layer status, receiving 'structural subscriptions' from institutions. Half of the stablecoin issuance volume and about 30% of gas occur on Ethereum; at the same time, Robinhood launched stock tokens on Ethereum L2, and Coinbase is fully developing Base.
4. Different Value Capture Mechanisms
Solana: Using low fees + high throughput to achieve ultra-high interaction density, value capture relies more on total trading volume and application layer fees/MEV, etc.; when meme/long-tail activities recede, chain fees and application fees cool down simultaneously, weakening valuation anchors.
Ethereum: EIP-1559 directly burns base fees, showing net deflation/low inflation during busy periods, combined with staking rewards, forming a valuation anchor of 'supply contraction + cash flow'.
5. Historical Risk Memory and 'Credibility Discount'
Solana: The approximately 5-hour downtime on February 6, 2024, and subsequent periodic consensus node declines have been fixed, but it remains a risk factor in institutional pricing tables.
Ethereum: The 'non-downtime' and broader developer/compliance ecosystem bring lower credibility discounts - when macro volatility rises, this discount will be amplified by the market.
4. Can SOL Take Off Again: Advantages/Disadvantages Analysis
SOL has the fundamental base of 'high activity + low fees + MEV sharing + cash flow at the application layer', combined with catalysts such as spot ETFs and RWA compliance rollout, which have a chance to initiate another trend; however, in the absence of ETF increments, and with treasury scale and narratives still weaker than ETH, and historical stability shadows not fully digested, the price remains highly 'event-driven'.
1. SOL's Advantages and Bullish Logic
Single Chain Throughput + Low Fees = Natural Soil for Active and Long Tail Assets
Solana handles tens of millions of interactions daily on a single chain, with trading and market-making being naturally active and fees extremely low, conducive to the continuous trial and error and diffusion of memes, long-tail assets, and high-frequency DeFi.Compliance RWA is in the making
CMBI × DigiFT has tokenized US dollar money market funds and deployed them on multiple chains including Solana/Ethereum, claiming to be the first publicly compliant MMF on Solana, bringing 'cash-like assets that can be explained by institutions' and fiat/stablecoin entry. This is a potential 'long-term capital narrative'.Inflation curve is predictable
Solana's established inflation model: initial 8%, decreasing by 15% every 'year' (~180 epochs), long-term at 1.5%. The actual annualized rate in 2025 is expected to be around 4.3%-4.6%, with discussions on proposals to accelerate deflation driven by the community. The predictable downward inflation benefits mid-to-long-term valuation anchors.If the spot ETF is approved = 'capital gateway' opens
Many institutions, including VanEck, have submitted or updated SOL spot ETF S-1 filings to the SEC; once released, it will replicate ETH's path of 'compliant funds → passive allocation → market making/derivatives' and attract more corporate treasury participation.
2. SOL's Disadvantages and Bearish Logic
The true increment of ETF is still on the way
ETH's spot ETF scale > $22B has formed a closed loop of institutional funds; while SOL is still in the application/communication period, the current 'staking' products in the US are not standard SEC spot ETFs, and their capital-absorbing ability is far weaker. Realized vs. expected is directly reflected in relative returns.Discrepancy in Treasury Strategy Scale and 'Spokesperson'
The scale of 'treasury companies' in the ETH camp (like BMNR) is significantly larger than that in the SOL camp (like Upexi), backed by first-line opinion leaders like Tom Lee; while SOL's treasury is still in a 'catch-up phase'. This means who has more bullets in turbulent times.The network narrative of 'financial hub vs. consumer/speculative chain'
ETH firmly occupies the narrative high ground of stablecoins/clearing/compliance finance; Solana relies more on memes/launchpads/long tails to drive activity and fees, with thematic rotations directly impacting on-chain fees and cash flow, making the price anchors more 'drifting'.The 'fee reduction competition' from ETH itself
Ethereum's mainnet fee reductions and competition from networks like BSC, Base, Sui, etc., have made 'low fees' no longer Solana's only selling point, leading to a diversion effect on new developers and capital.
5. Q3-Q4 SOL Trend Outlook and Summary
The essence of Solana remains 'high activity, low fees, application monetization' as a consumer-grade high-frequency chain. Whether it can 'take off again' in Q3-Q4 largely depends on whether ETFs can bring in compliance increments, whether RWA can run a scalable closed loop, and whether network stability continues to improve.
Baseline Scenario: Q3 enters a phase of 'trading recovery + narrative waiting' oscillation upward. On-chain activity and DEX/perpetual trading maintain high levels, with memes exhibiting a cycle of impulse activity - retraction - renewed activity. In terms of price, SOL is roughly pulled back and forth around 'valuation center uplift due to fundamentals' and 'risk premiums contraction due to event expectations', with a tendency toward oscillation upward.
Bullish Scenario: If spot ETFs are approved or enter a clear effective window around Q4, coupled with RWA formal issuance (not just individual MMFs, but more government bonds/bills/fund products), then SOL's three elements of 'capital gateway, sustainable cash flow, and network resilience' will be simultaneously strengthened, and the price is expected to show a trend upward and potentially break previous highs.
Bearish Scenario: If ETFs are delayed or denied again, memes/launchpads significantly recede, and other main chains introduce innovative functions or hot topics, it may trigger valuation anchors to loosen and trading beta to collapse; if compounded with macro tightening or Ethereum mainnet/L2 significantly reducing fees again, SOL will enter a 'high volatility downward - weak rebound' structure.
Conclusion
Solana experienced a rollercoaster of popularity in 2025. From its dazzling heights during the meme frenzy at the beginning of the year to a relative dimming under the pressure from ETH mid-year, the market's positioning of Solana has fluctuated several times. However, it is certain that the unique value of Solana's high-performance public chain remains prominent, and its ecosystem has not stagnated due to temporary cooling. In the long run, whether Solana can lead again depends on its ability to translate the advantages of a high-speed network into sustained user value: not only retaining users after the speculative tide recedes and expanding broader application boundaries, but also earning mainstream capital's trust and carving out a share in the compliance process. Fortunately, we are already seeing signs: whether it is institutional layout, technological upgrades, or ecological narrative transformation, Solana is accumulating strength. Perhaps the current correction is more like a buildup, waiting for the right moment to take off again.
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