Bitcoin and the S&P 500 still have growth potential thanks to supportive macroeconomic signals, while the Asian market is playing an increasingly important role in Bitcoin's dynamics.
Although Bitcoin has just gone through a significant downturn due to liquidity shortages, macroeconomic indicators and the recovery from Asian investors bring optimism about price increases in the near future.
MAIN CONTENT
The macro indicators from the US and Asia still support the growth trend of Bitcoin and the S&P 500.
Bitcoin currently leads in profitability compared to the S&P 500 over the past year, attracting new cash flows.
The Asian market is recovering early, which could drive money flows into Bitcoin if the trend continues.
What caused Bitcoin to drop 10% in the past week?
Bitcoin has decreased by 10% since the historical peak on August 14, mainly due to liquidity shortages increasing selling pressure in the market.
The lack of cash flow has made investor sentiment negative, leading to strong profit-taking at seasonal peak areas – a common signal during periods when the market reaches maximum price points.
Whenever the market enters a liquidity drought phase, many short-term investors tend to withdraw capital to preserve profits, creating deep short-term corrections before new buying pressure appears.
How are macroeconomic signals supporting Bitcoin and the S&P 500?
According to the Fed Financial Stress Index (FFSI) on Alphractal, both Bitcoin and the S&P 500 still have opportunities for further increases, thanks to stability in the US financial market.
FFSI measures financial stress – a value above 0 reflects selling pressure, while below 0 indicates stability and increased buying. Currently, the FFSI is below 0, signaling that the market environment still supports bullish trends for risky assets like Bitcoin and the S&P 500.
History shows that during periods of low FFSI like in 2020, both the stock and cryptocurrency markets experienced strong growth. This increases investor confidence in the potential for continued increases in the short term.
How has Bitcoin outperformed the S&P 500 over the past year?
Over the past 12 months, Bitcoin has grown by 86.2%, far exceeding the 15.3% increase of the S&P 500 according to data from Artemis.
Bitcoin's superior profitability is attracting attention from high-risk appetite investors, especially as new cash flows are expected to prioritize the cryptocurrency market if the buying trend returns.
Thus, it can be seen that Bitcoin is currently being evaluated as a more potential investment channel compared to traditional equity indices in terms of returns over the past year.
What does analyst Joao Wedson say about macroeconomic risks and Bitcoin's outlook?
Joao Wedson, a cryptocurrency analyst, believes the market is entering an 'observation phase', in which short-term price movements may change faster than macroeconomic indicators.
"If the FFSI exceeds and maintains above 0, that would be a warning sign that the situation in the US may become unstable, directly impacting risky markets."
– Joao Wedson, Cryptocurrency Analyst, Artemis, 2024
Wedson also warns that if the US falls into a financial instability situation, negative effects could spread to major economies in Asia by the end of 2025 and early 2026, posing a risk of slowing down Bitcoin's growth.
Therefore, he recommends that investors need to be cautious and prepare response plans to avoid being caught off guard by adverse fluctuations from global macroeconomic factors.
What is the current role of the Asian market for Bitcoin?
The Asian market is showing signs of early recovery, led by Korean investors, as the Korean Premium Index on CryptoQuant rises to 0.3.
Previously, this index continuously declined sharply, but the current recovery momentum could facilitate new cash flows into Bitcoin, especially from first-time investors.
If this trend continues for a long time, Asia will play a decisive role in triggering new price increases for Bitcoin, especially in the context of the US experiencing increased selling pressure on exchanges like Coinbase.
Why has the Coinbase Premium Index decreased, and what does it mean?
The Coinbase Premium Index – an indicator that assesses the price difference of Bitcoin between the US and internationally – has now decreased to 0.017, reflecting increased selling from US investors.
This decline reflects cautious sentiment, amplifying the selling trend in the face of macroeconomic instability signals, while Asian investors are increasing their purchases.
However, if the Coinbase Premium Index increases again, this will further strengthen Bitcoin's upward momentum, as demand from the US and Asia simultaneously turns positive.
"The positive sentiment of Asian investors, coupled with the recovery of macroeconomic indicators, will be an important driving force for Bitcoin's price in the near future."
– Artemis Analytics, Global Cryptocurrency Market Analysis Report, 2024
Comparison table of growth and indices between Bitcoin and the S&P 500
Metric Bitcoin S&P 500 Last 12 months Growth 86.2% 15.3% Current FFSI (below 0: positive) Positive Positive New cash flows into the market Increasing again in Asia Stable, slight increase Selling pressure from the US (Coinbase Premium Index) Increasing Not applicable
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the macro factor that has the strongest impact on Bitcoin's price currently?
The FFSI of the US and cash flows from Asia, especially South Korea, are strongly influencing Bitcoin's price trends in the short term, according to data from Artemis and CryptoQuant.
Can Bitcoin continue to grow as the S&P 500 is also rising?
Yes, current macroeconomic indicators are supporting both the stock market and Bitcoin; however, Bitcoin is still outperforming the S&P 500 in price increases.
Is the decrease in the Coinbase Premium Index a bad sign for Bitcoin?
This index's decline reflects increased selling pressure from the US, but if it quickly recovers along with Asian cash flow, the positive trend may still be maintained.
What highlights the role of the Asian market with Bitcoin?
The Asian market is recovering early, and the rise in the Korean Premium Index is a sign of leading new cash flows into Bitcoin globally.
Which report confirms the growth of Bitcoin compared to the S&P 500?
Data provided by Artemis Analytics shows Bitcoin has increased by 86.2%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500, which only reached 15.3% over the past year.
Source: https://tintucbitcoin.com/bitcoin-giam-nhung-ky-vong-phuc-hoi/
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