$BTC
With the important remarks of the Fed Chairman before the end of his term at the Jackson Hole economic conference.
The reality after the speech: gold rises, risk assets surge, stocks hit record highs. Positive signals.
The CME Fedwatch index increased to over 90% probability of a 0.25% cut in September.
Summary:
US economy: inflation at 2.6%, close to the 2% target
Weak job growth, GDP growing slowly (1.2%), stable unemployment rate at 4.2% with risks of increase.
The policy conveyed through the speech is moderate and leans towards easing: a cut in September depending on data. Shifting focus from combating inflation to supporting employment. This means flexible inflation control may not reach 2% and weakened employment with rising unemployment may trigger immediate action. The main direction is to support employment. Therefore, upcoming employment reports are more important.
It is a positive signal but caution is needed regarding overheating increases.