Consolidation is the Prelude to the Storm - ETH's current cliff at 4800 is the battleground of retail investors and whales!

The Truth of the Market

Current price reported at 4812 USD (today broke the 4800 mark), but volume has shrunk to a dangerous level (230,000 trading volume). BOLL channel has narrowed to 5068/4098, volatility compressed to the extreme, a trend change is imminent.

News Dark Thunder

BlackRock's ETH ETF holdings exceed 500,000 pieces, but the good news has been digested in advance (single-day capital inflow of 640 million did not push up the price).

Federal Reserve's Hawkish Blow: The probability of a rate cut in September plummeted to 75%, causing a plunge in US stocks that triggered a chain reaction in the crypto circle.

Blood and Tears Case

July 15th Style MACD Divergence (Yellow and White Lines Flattening on the Zero Axis + Volume Shrinking), after consolidating for 38 hours, it plummeted 12%! Current MACD red bars are shortening + price stagnation, the probability of historical repetition is soaring.

Core Viewpoints

1. Bullish Lifeline 4700: EMA120 moving average + Fibonacci 50% retracement overlap, breaking this level will trigger programmatic selling.

2. The Dealer's Knife Hangs High: The early session long upper shadow testing 4887.5 has exposed the intention to lure buyers.

3. Signal of Trend Change: Volume needs to break the 500,000 threshold, currently 230,000 is equivalent to 'stagnant water'.

Governor's Emergency Strategy

Spot: Lie flat! Don’t increase positions before breaking 4700 (save bullets for certain opportunities).

Contract: Focus on the 15-minute chart after 16:00:

Three consecutive rises stabilize at 4850 → Light long position (target 4920)

Volume breaks below 4700 → Short position chase (target 4610)

Ultimate Alarm

The 20:00 Federal Reserve speech will become the market's catalyst! If ETH loses the 4700 support, it may plunge to the BOLL lower band at 4098. Set a breakdown warning, pay attention.@富奇行长 Real-time Strategy - Remember: You must survive to witness the bull market!

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