"When the Bollinger Bands tighten, it is either the calm before the storm or the main force is quietly changing hands."
Current market situation: Bulls and bears are in a stalemate, volume is the key to victory.
ETH executed a 'false breakout' script this morning — after a quick surge to 4816, it rapidly fell back to around 4750 (1-hour volatility of 1.26%), a typical 'spike and dump' technique. The key level at 4800 acts like a magnet; the price repeatedly tests it but cannot hold, indicating that the main funds are waiting.
Three technical signals:
Bollinger Bands narrowing (5068↔4098): The distance between the upper and lower bands has shrunk to 970 points, with the middle band at 4583 serving as the dividing line between bulls and bears. Historically, after this pattern, there is an 80% probability of a one-sided trend, but it requires volume support (refer to the case of ETH surging from 4200 to 4900 at the end of July).
MACD divergence risk: Although the DIF and DEA have crossed upwards, the red bars are shortening + price reaches a new high while MACD does not, increasing short-term pullback pressure.
Volume has shrunk to a dangerous level: Current trading volume is 239,000, down 14% from the 5-day average (277,000), and has halved compared to the 10-day average (502,000). A price increase without volume is like a 'paper-thin bull market' — it will burst upon a poke.
News support: The Federal Reserve is hawkish, and there are undercurrents in the ETH ecosystem.
Macro headwinds: This morning, Federal Reserve official Kashkari stated that 'September may see a 25 basis point rate hike', causing the dollar index to jump, putting pressure on BTC/ETH.
On-chain anomaly: A whale address transferred 32,000 ETH to an exchange 2 hours ago (worth 150 million USD), suspected to be preparing for a sell-off.
Ecological benefits: The 'Account Abstraction Proposal EIP-7702' that Vitalik Buterin just liked has passed the testnet deployment, but the market reaction is tepid — the script of 'good news turning into bad news' is playing out again.
The main force is repeatedly trading around 4800, essentially waiting for macro trends. If trading volume breaks through 4920 after 16:00 in the US trading session, it can be seen as 'main force consensus formation'; conversely, if it falls below 4750, it may trigger a programmatic sell-off. Short-term strategy:
Aggressive: Place a buy order for a breakout at 4820 (stop loss at 4780), target 4920
Conservatives: Grid trading from 4610 to 4800, stop loss below 4583
Beware of the turning point tonight
History does not simply repeat itself, but it always follows a rhythm — on August 23 last year, ETH also surged 15% after a volume contraction; will this year be a 'mirror market' or a 'trap script'? After the US initial jobless claims data is released at 20:30 tonight, the answer may be revealed.
Remember to follow the Block Key, stay updated with top analysts' perspectives, and capture wealth signals at the first moment!#ETH创历史新高
