Just a week ago, the market was 99% sure the Fed would cut rates in September.
Yesterday, still an 85% chance.
But today? Only 71.5% 📉
🔎 Why the Big Shift?
📊 FOMC minutes show inflation is still the Fed’s main worry.
📈 July PPI data → prices creeping back up (inflation risk alive).
👥 Jobless claims at 235K, but not weak enough for fast cuts.
⏰ What’s Next?
👉 All eyes on Jerome Powell’s speech TOMORROW at Jackson Hole.
Markets will hang on every word for clues before the Sept 17 FOMC meeting.
💡 The Bigger Picture
The Fed is balancing inflation vs jobs.
Don’t expect quick money printing or fast rate cuts.
📌 My Takeaway
The easy-money era isn’t back yet. Stay sharp, manage your risk, and don’t blindly bet on Fed pivots.