Tonight, Powell's speech at the global central bank annual meeting essentially announced a rate cut in September.

The most crucial statement was, 'Due to monetary policy being in a tightening range, the shift in current baseline expectations and risk balance may require us to adjust our policy stance.'

This is equivalent to directly supporting a rate cut in September, with a more dovish view on inflation, stating 'one-time, no rate hikes in the future,' and a more cautious view on employment, saying 'if there is a downturn, it will accelerate deterioration.'

Additionally, regarding the monetary framework, as we expected, they clearly abandoned the flexible inflation targeting regime and simply and directly anchored the inflation target at 2%, while still paying attention to the 'shortage' in the labor market.

Poor employment will lead to significant rate cuts, but exceptionally strong employment (beyond full employment) itself will not trigger rate hikes.

Powell, with a dovish speech, once again embodied the persona of 'stern father in words, nurturing mother in actions,' and validated my previous speculation about reaching a tacit agreement on rate cuts with the understanding king.

Regarding the implications for the capital markets:

1. Negative for the dollar, positive for non-dollar currencies.

2. Positive for risk assets (NASDAQ, crypto) + anti-inflation assets (gold, commodities).

For Bitcoin, there is still upward momentum over the weekend, with resistance at 120,000.

For Ethereum, watch for a breakout above the previous high; once broken, the resistance level will be raised to 5,000.