Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's recent statements have released multiple signals, attracting widespread attention from the market. His remarks are interpreted as hints regarding the current economic situation and policy tendencies, raising market expectations for the subsequent direction.

Powell pointed out that global economic risks are increasing, suggesting that the Federal Reserve may respond by lowering interest rates, with expectations for a 25 basis point cut in September growing stronger. This shift is seen as an acknowledgment that the downward pressure on the economy has surpassed inflation concerns, while he characterized the impact of the trade war on prices as a "one-time shock," indicating that short-term inflation data may not hinder the easing pace.

Notably, he mentioned that "the labor market is not particularly tight," which is viewed as a precursor to interest rate cuts—since employment is not overheating and inflation is temporary, the obstacles to lowering rates seem to have diminished. At the same time, the statement that "employment faces downside risks" has also drawn attention, as employment data has been an important consideration for the Federal Reserve; now proactively warning may reflect internal concerns about the economy.

The market compares this situation to 2019, when the Federal Reserve issued dovish signals and lowered rates three times within three months, causing Bitcoin's price to soar from $4,000 to $14,000. The current backdrop is more complex, with the scale of global negative-yielding bonds exceeding $17 trillion, and capital is searching for outlets. The September FOMC meeting may become the starting point for a new round of liquidity gates to open, and whether this rate-cutting cycle will replicate the historic pattern of "rates dropping leading to surges" has become a hot topic of discussion in the market.$BTC $ETH $XRP #杰克逊霍尔会议 #美国初请失业金人数