Jerome Powell's speech at Jackson Hole opened the door for potential interest rate cuts in the future, but he still firmly stated that decisions must be data-driven and independent. He acknowledged that the risks of job losses are increasing and the likelihood of tariffs keeping prices high is non-negligible.
Policy remains restrictive, but the balance of risks may justify adjustments. The market feels relieved rather than panicked. This is important for Bitcoin prices because liquidity shocks often lead to the strongest sell-offs. This speech has diminished the likelihood of a new policy shock and shifted attention back to the levels on the chart.
Why Is Powell's Message Important for BTC?
Gradual acceptance of interest rate cuts is supporting risk assets without promising a rapid easing cycle. If inflation from tariffs does not persist, the Fed may pull back from restrictive setups cautiously. This path mitigates the sudden sharp drop scenario for Bitcoin. It also warns against excessive exuberance. BTC prices are currently trading in an environment where macro factors are less threatening in the short term, and prices must grow through technical confirmation.
Read the Market Immediately
Stocks surged and short-term bond yields fell after these remarks, a typical soothing move. For BTC, this means prices broke out quickly from the narrow hourly range. This reaction shows positions leaning towards caution ahead of the event. Short-selling orders were closed first, followed by momentum hedge funds, then prices stalled below the nearby supply. This is evident as policy risk narrows, but the Fed is not easily dismissing easy money.
Bitcoin Price Prediction: Hourly Chart Diagnosis
The 1-hour chart with Heikin Ashi and Bollinger Bands shows that a prolonged tightening has been resolved after the speech. The upper band statistics on the candle you shared are 113,562, the base 112,765, and below 111,967. The price spiked to around 115,817, then stabilized around 113,960.
The breakout has expanded the bands and reversed the uptrend of Heikin Ashi after a slow decline. The upper wick near 115,800 marks new supply and the first decisive area. If buyers can hold the closing price in the upper half of the envelope, the next bullish phase is likely to occur. If the price falls back below the base level, this move will become a single squeeze.
The current support level is 113,400, followed by the nearby resistance level of 112,765. If the price closes below 111,900, the structure will break, opening up at 110,800 and 109,000, where your chart shows previous liquidity. The resistance level is set at 115,000 to 115,800. Acceptance above 116,000 will target the next support area around 117,500. Until that happens, expect higher attempts to meet supply at 115.
Jerome Powell's Speech: The Bridge from Macro to Micro
Jerome Powell's speech has reduced the likelihood of a sudden hawkish surprise in the coming sessions. This aligns with breaking the upper price range rather than a mass liquidation. The Fed's determination to protect its independence also reduces the chances of political pressure forcing the market to change abruptly. The net effect on the hourly news feed is fewer headline-grabbing events and more focus on technical factors. Buyers have room to test higher levels, but they must clearly convert resistance as no easing policy is promised.
Bitcoin Price Prediction: Will BTC Collapse?
Short-term collapse risk is low while the 111,900 threshold remains intact. The speech has ruled out immediate policy shocks that often cause steep declines. A collapse would require a clear loss of that support threshold or upcoming data pushing the Fed back to a tightening trend. The chart currently does not show that. Instead, it shows a breakout from the compression zone with expanding volatility bands, which typically supports bullish momentum or at least a higher range.
Scenarios in the Next 24 to 72 Hours
Continuing to rise higher is the base case. Hold the 113,400 to 112,700 level when the price drops, then attack back to the 115,000 to 115,800 level. An hourly close above 116,000 will open up to 117,500, where the first profit-taking is likely to appear.
Range reversal is the second case. Sliding back to the base level near 112,765, attaching the lower band around 111,967, then rebuilding within the previous range while the market waits for new data.
The collapse and explosion are the tails. Breaking and closing below 111,900 with upward momentum, then sliding down to 110,800 and possibly 109,000. Only here does the collapse momentum appear again.
The trend is positive when the price is above 113,400. Buying can only occur when the price drops to 113,400 to 112,700 if it continues to close in the upper half of the band. Momentum confirmation is an hourly close above 116,000 and maintaining it. Bullish trend confirmation is an hourly close below 111,900 and maintaining it on a retest. If that happens, stop buying as the price drops and look for selling opportunities when the price bounces back to 112,700.
A hot inflation report forces the market to price out cuts and price in new increases. On the chart, you will see rejection from 115 to 116, a lower peak, followed by a solid close at 111,900. Without this combination, the path of least resistance will be sideways to up.
Jerome Powell's Speech: The Final Version
Jerome Powell's speech has eased concerns about a policy shock without promising quick easing. Bitcoin responded with a spectacular breakout from the low price range, rather than a sharp drop. As long as 111,900 USD remains intact, BTC is more likely to explore the 115,000 to 117,000 USD range rather than plummet. The ceiling remains important as liquidity shows no signs of flooding in, but the floor seems more solid after the Jackson Hole conference.
