In 2018, Harvard economist and former IMF chief economist Kenneth S. Rogoff asserted that Bitcoin was more likely to fall to $100 than to reach $100,000 within ten years.
However, just seven years later, the reality has completely reversed: Bitcoin is now trading around $112,000, nearly ten times the level below $10,000 in March 2018.
Rogoff admitted: “I was too optimistic that the U.S. would follow a reasonable path in regulating cryptocurrency.”
Reasons Beyond Expectations
According to Rogoff, the reason for his incorrect forecast was that he did not foresee Bitcoin becoming the preferred medium of exchange in the global underground economy worth up to $20 trillion.
He also pointed out a paradox: many managers, who are tasked with monitoring the market, hold huge amounts of wealth in digital currency, which makes them less motivated to tighten regulations. This has contributed to Bitcoin having the opportunity to explode beyond expectations.
Warning About Regulatory Tightening
While admitting his mistake, Rogoff believes this does not mean Bitcoin will continue to grow indefinitely.
He predicts that governments will soon take strong measures to curb the use of cryptocurrency for tax evasion and illegal activities.
Rogoff emphasized: “Policymakers will be forced to act to control this sector.”
Nevertheless, the rapid development of the digital currency market shows an increasing gap between the current legal framework and the actual operation of the digital economy.
