😇 Powell's Theses:
⚖️ Risk balance is shifting → possible policy adjustment.
👷 Risks of employment decline are increasing.
📉 Labor supply and demand have weakened.
❌ The Fed is abandoning flexible inflation targeting.
🧠 Inflation expectations are not guaranteed.
🛂 Strict immigration = weak labor force growth.
🛒 Tariffs → price increase, effect will intensify.
📊 PCE inflation: 2.6% / Core: 2.9%.
⏳ Tariff effect is likely short-term.
🏦 GDP is slowing due to reduced consumption.
⚙️ The labor market is nearly in equilibrium.
👥 Employment slowdown ≠ unemployment increase.
🔥 A one-time price spike should not become sustained inflation.
🐂 Chance of rate cut in September ↑ to 90%.