After Powell's speech, the Fed's expectation of a rate cut in September rises to 90%

According to reports from Jinshi Data, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated that the price effects of tariffs are temporary and belong to a reasonable baseline scenario. The stable unemployment rate allows the Fed to be more cautious when adjusting its policy stance. He emphasized that a one-time price increase should not evolve into a persistent inflation problem and introduced a new framework to adapt to various economic conditions. At the same time, Powell pointed out that the employment situation faces downside risks. After Powell's speech, traders expect the probability of a rate cut by the Fed in September to rise from 75% to about 90%.