Market Movements Before Powell's Speech at 10 PM: U.S. Treasuries See Frenzied Buying, Yield Plummets, and Bullish Sentiment for the Dollar Soars to Three-Week High!

According to Jin10 data, ahead of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech at Jackson Hole, the market has stirred into action: investors are rushing into U.S. long-term Treasuries, directly pushing yields down; at the same time, the currency options market is sending strong signals, with bullish sentiment for the dollar soaring to the highest point in three weeks.

Recent economic data has significantly cooled expectations for a rate cut in September, placing Powell in a "delicate balance." Analysts point out that before the release of August's non-farm payroll data, he is likely to avoid providing clear policy guidance while also needing to withstand political pressure—Deutsche Bank's head of foreign exchange and monetary policy research, Sonja Marten, bluntly stated that Powell may resist Trump's calls for rate cuts, clarifying that Fed policy will not deviate from fundamentals, with only a 25 basis point cut likely in September, without more aggressive actions.

Regarding the dollar's trend, Nick Rees, head of macro research at Monex Europe, provided an outlook: if the market overinterprets Powell's comments on a September rate cut, it could trigger a brief sell-off of the dollar, but this trend is unlikely to last. Overall, Powell's tone in this speech is likely to lean hawkish, potentially driving the dollar to strengthen further before the end of this week.