Market Sentiment
The current Fear & Greed Index is 49 points, indicating a neutral level. The core characteristic of this sentiment is that investors are in a wait-and-see mode, lacking extreme fear or greed. Key driving factors behind this include a 75% probability of a Fed rate cut in September, but the July FOMC minutes show dual concerns of sticky inflation and weak employment, leading to increased market volatility and suppressing the recovery of risk appetite in the short term.
Market Overview
The latest price of BTC is $112,987.13, down 0.64% in 24 hours; the latest price of ETH is $4,300.15, up 2.59% in 24 hours. The fluctuations in BTC mainly stem from traders reducing their bets on two Fed rate cuts and a net outflow of $194 million from ETFs, triggering profit-taking; the rebound in ETH is attributed to a shift in institutional funds, with a net inflow of $288 million into ETFs, driving up spot demand.
On-Chain Focus
A certain ancient whale sold 2,070 BTC (valued at $235 million) in the past 24 hours and bought 30,367 ETH in spot (valued at $131 million), while opening a long position of 78,000 ETH with 5x leverage (position value of $336 million). Additionally, 2,847,355 UNI (valued at $29.62 million) were transferred from an unknown wallet to a Coinbase institutional account, indicating potential signs of institution liquidation.
Institutional Movements
The Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net outflow of $194 million yesterday, primarily dominated by a $43 million outflow from ARKB and a $32 million outflow from FBTC; the Ethereum spot ETF experienced a net inflow of $288 million, with BlackRock's ETHA inflowing $234 million. This flow of funds reinforces short-term downward pressure on BTC while supporting the rebound in ETH prices, and institutional rotation is expected to intensify market divergence.
Regulation and Macroeconomics
The U.S. Department of Justice's criminal division has clarified that open-source smart contract developers are not malicious and do not commit crimes, providing exemptions for DeFi developers; a Pennsylvania bill aims to ban public officials from trading cryptocurrency assets over $1,000. Fed's Goolsbee stated that the latest inflation data is not ideal, and there is still time to collect data, with a 75% probability of a rate cut in September. These events temporarily alleviate DeFi regulatory fears, but macro uncertainty may amplify market volatility.
