August 22, 2025 Bitcoin (BTC) Market Briefing: 4-Hour Chart Breaks Key Moving Average, $110,000 Becomes Short-Term Lifeline

1. Real-time Market and Core Trigger Points

- Current Price: $112,225, after 4 PM on August 22, a single 4-hour candlestick fell by 0.7%, continuing the pullback; since the high of $124,545.6 in August, it has pulled back nearly 10%.

- Macroeconomic Linkage: The US Dollar Index rose by 0.09% to 98.71, continuously suppressing risk assets, once again verifying the 'inverse correlation' with Bitcoin.

- Technical Breakdown: The 4-hour chart broke below the EMA 377 moving average (short-term strong support), and the daily chart barely relies on the EMA 89 moving average ($111,455) for support, with weakness intensifying.

2. Short-Term Trend: High Probability of Testing $110,000

1. Clear Short-Term Targets:

After losing EMA 377 on the 4-hour chart, there is no obvious support, likely approaching $110,000, and the effectiveness of this support level needs to be monitored. If breached, it will test below the daily EMA 89, with a potential pullback of up to 12% (from this month’s high).

2. Daily Weakness Hard to Change:

Since August 18, Bitcoin has stayed below the middle band of the daily Bollinger Bands for five consecutive trading days, with no significant rebound recovery signal, indicating exhaustion of bullish momentum. Currently, it relies solely on EMA 89 for support; if broken, it will trigger a bearish resonance of 'Bollinger Bands opening downwards + multiple moving averages losing support'.

3. Short-Term Operations: Hold Short Positions, Avoid Long Positions

- Short Position Strategy:

Already in a short position: Continue to hold, move stop-loss up to $113,500 (above the 4-hour EMA 377), with the first target at $111,455 (daily EMA 89), and below that, look towards $110,000.

Not entered: Enter lightly upon a rebound to $112,500-$113,000, with a stop-loss at $113,500, targeting the same levels as above.

- Long Position Strategy:

Strongly discouraged! Stabilizing near $110,000 is merely a weak rebound, with no bottom-fishing value; avoid 'betting on support' to prevent getting trapped.

4. Risk Warning: $110,000 is the Last Line of Defense in the Short Term

If $110,000 is breached and the daily EMA 89 simultaneously falls, it will trigger stop-loss orders, or accelerate the decline to $108,000-$106,825 (previously bearish target). Closely monitor the US Dollar Index; if it breaks 99, tighten stop-losses on short positions.

Summary

Both the technical and macroeconomic aspects of Bitcoin are bearish, with the 4-hour chart breaking key moving averages and the daily chart relying on a single moving average for support, making $110,000 the 'lifeline'. The operation focuses on 'holding short positions and avoiding long positions', without betting on support, and waiting for clear signals of a bottoming out near $110,000 (such as a strong bullish candle) before making adjustments. #BNB创新高