1. Summary

$ADA is at a crossroads: the support zone of 0.84 USDT is the key point to determine the trend. A breakout above 0.94 or a pullback at 0.84–0.80 presents a real trading opportunity. Strong momentum: The Cardano Summit 2025 (Berlin, 12-13/11) and the progress of Hydra are creating a strong narrative, attracting institutional capital. But be cautious: weak volume or whales selling off could lead to a quick reversal.

2. Technical Analysis

  • Technical: ADA is testing the support zone of 0.84 USDT, with the nearest resistance at 0.94–0.98. RSI 1H ~26 (oversold), indicating potential for a rebound, but 1H volume is low, needing a strong increase to confirm a breakout. Strong support at 0.75–0.84; losing this zone would be bearish in the short term. If 1H close > 0.94 with increasing volume, the bias shifts to bullish, with targets of 1.10–1.30.

  • Fundamental: The Cardano Summit 2025 is the focal point, with over 75 speakers and 800+ business leaders discussing blockchain, AI, and digital identity. Hydra, a layer-2 solution, promises to achieve a million TPS (Doom Tournament test reached 1M+ TPS) and reduce transaction fees to nearly zero. Institutional capital is increasing (Grayscale filed for ETF, with an approval probability of 80–90%) and the Cardano treasury approved 96M ADA for Hydra/Acropolis, reinforcing long-term confidence.

  • Sentiment: The market is excited about ETF speculation and the Hydra mainnet expected in Q4 2025. However, whales accumulating 200M ADA recently may also take profits, creating pressure. Volume confirmation is needed to avoid FOMO or a bull trap.

3. Trading Strategy

  • Entry:

    • Scenario A (Breakout): Buy when 1H close > 0.94, with increasing volume (>20% compared to MA20).

    • Scenario B (Pullback): Buy when the price rejects the zone of 0.84–0.80, confirmed by a 1H reversal candle (e.g., bullish engulfing).

  • Stop-loss (mandatory): Breakout SL = 0.80; Pullback SL = 0.75.

  • Take-profit: TP1: 0.98–1.02 (short-term resistance zone); TP2: 1.10–1.30 (expansion target, scale-out 50% at TP1).

  • Exit triggers: Large inflows into CEX, news unlock/vesting, or RSI >70 with weak volume → exit early. Avoid FOMO, prioritize limit orders to control risk.