I do not have a definite answer; the situation is multifaceted. Therefore, in the next 5 messages, I will try to outline the thought.
It is evident that the coin has already fulfilled the globally minimum necessary price drop program. Now it is a matter of details.
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#1. Ichimoku (1D chart)
* conversion line above the cloud;
* conversion line above the baseline;
* price above the cloud;
* the next part of the cloud is green.
This is 4 out of 5 Ichimoku signals indicating a potential reversal and change in price direction.
(It was approximately the same in December 2023 — back then, after similar signals, it took about 80 days until strong growth.)
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#2. BoS and CHoCH (1D chart)
* CHoCH: the trend is downward, no signs of reversal.
* BoS: the structure is downward, and there are also no signs of reversal.
The price is fully in a downward movement with no signs of a change in direction. Therefore, for now, it should be considered as continuing to go down.
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#3. Wyckoff (1D chart)
There are no signs of Wyckoff accumulation.
Yes, noticeable sideways price movement, but this is clearly not Wyckoff accumulation at present.
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#4. Technical Analysis
Currently, the price has hit a diagonal resistance level.
A similar formation has already been observed between February 2022 and November 2023.
Consolidation above the diagonal resistance will signal a change in direction.
For now, it is worth considering the descending wedge as a range within which the price may trade in the near future.
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#5. Order Blocks
* On the 1W and 1D charts, it is visible that the price is trying to test the Order Block in the range of $4.12 – $3.68.
* This is the only untested Order Block on the global chart.
With high probability, the price will drop into this range another 1–2 times.
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#6. Fibonacci Levels
With continued decline, there remains a risk of testing expansion levels:
* 127% — $3.3 (highly likely)
* 141% — $2.68 (likely)
* 161% — $1.78 (unlikely, but possible)
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#7. MACD
* On 1D, seller strength is noticeable, rather than buyer weakness.
* On 1W, it is clear that the coin has entered a stage of accumulation, but the buying power is still weak.
This means that accumulation may take another 1–3 months (I cannot say for sure).
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RESULT
If considering the coin for purchase:
* Ichimoku and MACD show signs of accumulation.
* BoS, CHoCH, and technical analysis indicate that the downward movement is not yet complete.
* The Order Block and Fibonacci converge in the range of $4.12 – $3.3, which coincides with the Low of 2023 ($3.68), the Fibonacci level of 127% ($3.3), and the boundaries of the descending wedge.
Assumption: in the next 2–3 months, the price will form accumulation in the lower range.
The zone $4.12 – $3.3 looks suitable for building positions.
Preliminary targets: $23.78 / $31.97 / $35.96 (I do not see prospects above these levels for now).
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This analysis is relevant as of today. It is a reference, not a guarantee — the situation may change in a week. It is better to keep a reference and check with the actual situation every day.
