Talking BTC: Institutional Support + Policy Game, 10 PM Tonight is Key!
Family, today we focus on Bitcoin (BTC), analyzing the latest market trends from multiple dimensions—after all, the market sentiment is changing rapidly, and we need to follow the data to be reliable.
First, let's look at the most concrete institutional actions: BlackRock's spot Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) has been very strong lately, with a single-day inflow of $75 million, and holdings directly surpassing 350,000 BTC, becoming the world's third-largest holder of BTC; Hong Kong Ming Cheng Group is even more direct, spending $483 million to buy 4,250 BTC at an average price of $113,700, clearly positioning itself for a dip; this attitude from institutions gives the market some confidence.
Next, on the macro front, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates in September has soared to 75%-85%, with the key being Powell's speech tonight at 10 PM! If he sends a dovish signal, like clarifying the rate cut path, risk assets are likely to rebound, and BTC will surely benefit; coupled with the recent weakening of the dollar and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield dropping to 4.05%, the cost of holding BTC has also decreased, which are all potential positives.
However, we must also stay clear-headed; the probability of daily fluctuations is as follows: a 55% chance of decline, mainly due to technical overbought conditions and cautious market sentiment; a 45% chance of increase, relying entirely on favorable policies and institutional support, it is a “watch and see” market.
Now we are at a critical decision point: if it can hold above $112,000, we can speculate on a rebound after the speech; if it breaks below $112,000, we need to be cautious of a pullback to $108,000, at which point don’t stubbornly hold on, but rather avoid the wind.
Finally, here are the key points: try to reduce leverage in operations, and don’t miss Powell's speech tonight at 10 PM; long-term players should continue to “buy on dips” and not be swayed by short-term volatility. Today's operating guide: consider shorting around $113,100-$113,500, first looking at $112,070, then $111,600. Especially a reminder, if Powell's speech is hawkish, such as mentioning a delay in rate cuts, BTC might directly fall below $110,000, everyone should prepare in advance! $BTC
